• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Why did a $154 billion CEO just endorse stripping most Americans of voting rights—and taking us back to the 19th century?

2

eBay will pay nearly $50 million after employees reportedly sent a Massachusetts couple a bloody pig mask, cockroaches and death threats

3

Current price of oil as of July 28, 2026

1

Why did a $154 billion CEO just endorse stripping most Americans of voting rights—and taking us back to the 19th century?

2

eBay will pay nearly $50 million after employees reportedly sent a Massachusetts couple a bloody pig mask, cockroaches and death threats

3

Current price of oil as of July 28, 2026
FinanceFederal Reserve

Fed Says It’s Time to Lower Your Expectations for the Economy

By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
September 21, 2016, 2:51 PM ET
First 2013 Cadillac ATS Rolls Off Assembly Line In Lansing
LANSING, MI, - JULY 26: General Motors' workers assemble a 2013 Cadillac ATS on the assembly line at the General Motors Lansing Grand River Assembly Plant July 26, 2012 in Lansing, Michigan. The first 2013 Cadillac ATS available for retail sale rolled off the assembly line today at the plant. (Photo by Bill Pugliano/Getty Images)Photograph by Bill Pugliano — Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

The U.S. economy has fallen below a key milestone: the 2% mark.

The Federal Reserve’s interest-rate setting body, the FOMC, released its quarterly projections for the American economy, and median estimate for the long-run growth potential of the economy among FOMC members is that the best the economy can hope to grow annually is at 1.8%.

That’s down from a median estimate of 2% in June, and far below the American economy’s average growth rate during much of the twentieth century of around 3.5%. In 2017 and 2018, Fed economists see growth coming in at 2%, before settling down to the 1.8% rate. That suggests that most FOMC members see the American economy as still playing catch up, and that there is room for above-trend growth in the near-term.

America’s political class will not likely take this news well.

Indeed, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has been using the recent trend of slow growth as evidence to attack the economic policies of Barack Obama and other politicians who have pushed for free trade. “Between World War II and the year 2000, the United States averaged a 3.5% growth rate,” Trump pointed out during a speech last week at the Economic Club of New York. “But, after China joined the World Trade Organization, our average growth rate has been reduced to only 2%.”

While we should expect politicians, especially those out of power, to use this news as a means of criticizing status-quo economic policy, there are structural reasons why we should expect growth to be lower in the future than in the decades following World War II. The most important is the fact that American women are having far fewer children today than in decades past. Because GDP is simply the sum of all the goods and services produced in America, a faster-growing labor force means that we can produce more things and GDP growth will be higher. Accepting more immigrants into the country could help assuage this trend, though the political will for such a move doesn’t appear to exist.

Furthermore, there were changes that occurred in the American economy in the 20th century that boosted growth, but won’t happen again. For instance, the entrance of women into labor force in large numbers cannot be repeated now that such large numbers of women are already working. Technological advances like widespread electrification or the computer revolution are one-time occurrences, and similarly revolutionary inventions cannot be counted on to appear in the future.

That said there are ideas on the left and the right, from investing in infrastructure to tax reform, that may help boost growth beyond what the Fed sees possible at this juncture. Hopefully this news will motivate politicians to set aside ideology and start experimenting with some of these methods.

About the Author
By Chris Matthews
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

Latest in Finance

Jamie Dimon says his stockbroker father taught him to invest with a ‘brutally hard’ childhood game
C-SuiteJamie Dimon
Jamie Dimon says his stockbroker father taught him to invest with a ‘brutally hard’ childhood game
By Sarah GlodekJuly 29, 2026
5 minutes ago
Current ARM mortgage rates report for July 29, 2026
Personal FinanceReal Estate
Current ARM mortgage rates report for July 29, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJuly 29, 2026
9 minutes ago
Current refi mortgage rates report for July 29, 2026
Personal FinanceReal Estate
Current refi mortgage rates report for July 29, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJuly 29, 2026
9 minutes ago
Mortgage rates today, July 29, 2026
Personal Financemortgages
Mortgage rates today, July 29, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJuly 29, 2026
9 minutes ago
Trump broke his promise to lower — and eliminate — the national debt. A top investor thinks he’s the ‘worst-spending president in history’
Economynational debt
Trump broke his promise to lower — and eliminate — the national debt. A top investor thinks he’s the ‘worst-spending president in history’
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 29, 2026
40 minutes ago
Photo of Trump
North AmericaDonald Trump
Netanyahu and Zelenskyy meet Trump at the White House as Washington honors Lindsey Graham
By The Associated PressJuly 28, 2026
10 hours ago

Most Popular

Why did a $154 billion CEO just endorse stripping most Americans of voting rights—and taking us back to the 19th century?
C-Suite
Why did a $154 billion CEO just endorse stripping most Americans of voting rights—and taking us back to the 19th century?
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 27, 2026
2 days ago
eBay will pay nearly $50 million after employees reportedly sent a Massachusetts couple a bloody pig mask, cockroaches and death threats
Law
eBay will pay nearly $50 million after employees reportedly sent a Massachusetts couple a bloody pig mask, cockroaches and death threats
By The Associated Press and Leah WillinghamJuly 28, 2026
10 hours ago
Current price of oil as of July 28, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 28, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 28, 2026
20 hours ago
The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'
Real Estate
The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 25, 2026
4 days ago
The brutal math behind Gen Z's lonely weekends: $15 drinks are driving a generational 'spending hangover'
Economy
The brutal math behind Gen Z's lonely weekends: $15 drinks are driving a generational 'spending hangover'
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 28, 2026
17 hours ago
No. 1 on the Fortune Global 500: Amazon's Jeff Bezos on how his garage startup became the largest company in the world by revenue
Magazine
No. 1 on the Fortune Global 500: Amazon's Jeff Bezos on how his garage startup became the largest company in the world by revenue
By Kristin StollerJuly 28, 2026
23 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.