Betting Odds That Mitt Romney’s Running For President Just Spiked

Mar 03, 2016

Mitt Romney tore into Donald Trump in a speech on Thursday, calling him "very, very not smart" and "phony." The spectacle of a party elder bashing its frontrunner for the nomination was remarkable in itself, but also worth noting: Romney on Thursday sounded even more like a candidate than Marco Rubio, who did his own version of Trump real-talk on Sunday, making headlines mainly for his speculation about the length of Trump’s fingers.

Romney's speech ignited the political betting markets that have been tracking a possible insurgent candidacy from the former Massachusetts governor in a brokered convention. The convention play is something that’s been speculated about for a while (McKay Coppins does so effectively here).

The below chart shows from betting market PredictIt a spike in the odds that Romney would become a presidential candidate. It's up to more than 10%, with a huge spike in betting volume from about 5,000 yesterday to 32,000 today.


And here's a chart showing Romney's odds for actually winning the nomination. It's up about four-fold from last week:

PredictIt_Chart (1)

Of course, it’s worth noting that even in the excitable online betting markets, the odds are still low. Really, really low. Even if Twitter really wants it to be real:

The bottom line: if you have inside information that Romney’s making a run for it in Cleveland, now’s your chance to make some cash.

All products and services featured are based solely on editorial selection. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website.

Quotes delayed at least 15 minutes. Market data provided by Interactive Data. ETF and Mutual Fund data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Dow Jones Terms & Conditions: S&P Index data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Terms & Conditions. Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions