Mitt Romney tore into Donald Trump in a speech on Thursday, calling him “very, very not smart” and “phony.” The spectacle of a party elder bashing its frontrunner for the nomination was remarkable in itself, but also worth noting: Romney on Thursday sounded even more like a candidate than Marco Rubio, who did his own version of Trump real-talk on Sunday, making headlines mainly for his speculation about the length of Trump’s fingers.
Romney’s speech ignited the political betting markets that have been tracking a possible insurgent candidacy from the former Massachusetts governor in a brokered convention. The convention play is something that’s been speculated about for a while (McKay Coppins does so effectively here).
The below chart shows from betting market PredictIt a spike in the odds that Romney would become a presidential candidate. It’s up to more than 10%, with a huge spike in betting volume from about 5,000 yesterday to 32,000 today.
And here’s a chart showing Romney’s odds for actually winning the nomination. It’s up about four-fold from last week:
Of course, it’s worth noting that even in the excitable online betting markets, the odds are still low. Really, really low. Even if Twitter really wants it to be real:
#BelieveInAmerica pic.twitter.com/DL3AgR118u
— Comfortably Smug (@ComfortablySmug) March 3, 2016
https://twitter.com/7im/status/705437027123097600
Romney literally lays out a path to his own nomination at the convention. Gutsy.
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) March 3, 2016
The bottom line: if you have inside information that Romney’s making a run for it in Cleveland, now’s your chance to make some cash.
