The Stonybrook University professor says his model has been only wrong once, since 1912.
While current political polls and even online gamblers say that Donald Trump is a longshot for the Oval Office, a Stony Brook University professor says his calculations show the tycoon is almost certain to win the election.
Prof. Helmut Norpath, appearing on Fox and Friends this morning, says Trump’s odds of winning the presidency are between 97-99%. Norpath says his calculations are based on historical models of primaries that have proven largely accurate for over 100 years.
Norpath says his model has only fallen short on one election since 1912 – the Bush-Gore race of 2000 (when Gore, in fact, won the popular vote).
“I’ve looked at elections in the past. And I’ve seen that the New Hampshire primary in particular is a very good predictor of what happens,” he said.
The root of his thesis seems to be Trump’s victory in New Hampshire, while Hillary Clinton failed to capture the state. That, he says, gives Trump a 97% chance of winning.
In a Trump vs. Bernie Sanders race, he says, Trump’s odds of victory go up to 99%.
“If you win the first two primaries and the other candidate does not … I think that would typically tell you something about the outcome,” he said.
Norpath acknowledged that results from Super Tuesday might alter the calculations and says he plans to factor those into future projections.
The odds are considerably better than Trump is seeing in other samples.
An average of six polls from news organizations on Real Clear Politics shows Trump leading the Republican field with 33.2%. And among Democrats, Clinton, with 47.2% is just five points ahead of Bernie Sanders.
And some online casinos give the candidate a 71% chance of winning the Republican nomination, but only a 24% chance of capturing the White House.