• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

U.S. Treasury has borrowed $155 billion every month of this fiscal year—and is now paying $24 billion a week in interest on its debts

2

Top Iranian officials admitted to the supreme leader that the U.S. naval blockade was crushing the economy, report says, as Trump eyes reimposing it

3

Billionaire MacKenzie Scott just donated $20 million to support America’s youth mental health, as a fifth of teens struggle with suicidal thoughts

1

U.S. Treasury has borrowed $155 billion every month of this fiscal year—and is now paying $24 billion a week in interest on its debts

2

Top Iranian officials admitted to the supreme leader that the U.S. naval blockade was crushing the economy, report says, as Trump eyes reimposing it

3

Billionaire MacKenzie Scott just donated $20 million to support America’s youth mental health, as a fifth of teens struggle with suicidal thoughts

The big spending shift in emerging markets

Geoff Colvin
By
Geoff Colvin
Geoff Colvin
Senior Editor-at-Large
Down Arrow Button Icon
Geoff Colvin
By
Geoff Colvin
Geoff Colvin
Senior Editor-at-Large
Down Arrow Button Icon
March 17, 2014, 4:46 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.
A shopper at a supermarket in Hefei

FORTUNE — As I was talking recently with a group of experts on emerging markets, we focused on consumer behavior — an important issue now as many of those markets build growing middle classes, and Chinese government policy aims to shift the world’s second-largest economy from being investment- and export-based to being consumer-based. A few trends, some surprising, emerged as vital for investors and business people to understand:

  • As incomes rise from low levels, consumers first spend money on more calories, naturally enough, and then, somewhere around $1,500 of annual per capita income, they spend in order to get more of those calories from protein. Soon after that they start spending on familiar consumer goods, such as personal care products and even on larger capital goods, notably air conditioners; the number of air conditioners per capita in China has rocketed in the past decade. But this early progression is often disrupted by a desire for a cell phone. The experts said that many emerging-market consumers will sacrifice nutrition for connection. Facebook’s (FB) Mark Zuckerberg argues that connectivity is a human right. Of course he would say that, but his position may well become widely shared.
  • Consumers want better transportation, but the progression isn’t as obvious as we may think. In India it isn’t unusual to see a family of four on a motor scooter, so we expect them to want a car. Which they do — until too many people get cars, and then people want scooters in order to get around the cars that are stuck in traffic.
  • A remarkably consistent trend as economies mature is a strong desire for a premium version of the local hooch. Ruou in Vietnam, Lambanog in the Philippines, the infamous Baijiu in China — when people (okay, men) get a little disposable income in their pockets, they apparently feel a powerful need to pay more for booze than they used to.

MORE: On eve of stress tests, Fed asks banks for more info

  • But governments can stop trends. The growth of the luxury goods market in China was stupendous until President Xi Jinping decreed that ostentation is now uncool, especially among government officials. After years of booming, the luxury goods market was virtually flat in China last year.
  • Many products that consumers used to buy can now be shared or consumed as services. In poor rural villages, groups of people will jointly get a cell phone, which is easily shared, unlike a landline phone. Urban consumers employ Zipcar-like services to use a car only when they need it. As a result, these people can consume major products much earlier in their rise to prosperity than previously.
  • We all know that emerging market consumers will reorder the world economy. But we Western consumers will get into trouble if we assume we know how it will happen. The real trends demand attention.
About the Author
Geoff Colvin
By Geoff ColvinSenior Editor-at-Large
LinkedIn iconTwitter icon

Geoff Colvin is a senior editor-at-large at Fortune, covering leadership, globalization, wealth creation, the infotech revolution, and related issues.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

A 12-person PR firm represents De Niro, Pacino, and billion-dollar clients. Its founder says the secret is staying small
SuccessPublic relations
A 12-person PR firm represents De Niro, Pacino, and billion-dollar clients. Its founder says the secret is staying small
By Sydney LakeJuly 11, 2026
2 hours ago
usa
Commentary250 Years of Innovation
For 250 years, work defined American identity. That era Is ending
By Keith Ferrazzi and Wendy SmithJuly 11, 2026
2 hours ago
Meta added a privacy-safety feature to its AI glasses but is reportedly testing a ‘super-sensing’ prototype
Big TechMeta
Meta added a privacy-safety feature to its AI glasses but is reportedly testing a ‘super-sensing’ prototype
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 11, 2026
2 hours ago
How SK Hynix just pulled off the second-largest U.S. share sale by quietly powering the AI boom
AsiaIPOs
How SK Hynix just pulled off the second-largest U.S. share sale by quietly powering the AI boom
By Nicholas GordonJuly 11, 2026
3 hours ago
A $5 hair tie, a sold-out dress, cake and a fast-food order: How fans chase closeness to Erling Haaland, Taylor Swift and other celebrities
Arts & EntertainmentWorld Cup
A $5 hair tie, a sold-out dress, cake and a fast-food order: How fans chase closeness to Erling Haaland, Taylor Swift and other celebrities
By Mia OsmonbekovJuly 11, 2026
4 hours ago
Why the 2026 IPO boom is about to broaden beyond AI mega-deals
InvestingFinance
Why the 2026 IPO boom is about to broaden beyond AI mega-deals
By Sheryl EstradaJuly 11, 2026
4 hours ago

Most Popular

U.S. Treasury has borrowed $155 billion every month of this fiscal year—and is now paying $24 billion a week in interest on its debts
Economy
U.S. Treasury has borrowed $155 billion every month of this fiscal year—and is now paying $24 billion a week in interest on its debts
By Eleanor PringleJuly 10, 2026
1 day ago
Top Iranian officials admitted to the supreme leader that the U.S. naval blockade was crushing the economy, report says, as Trump eyes reimposing it
Middle East
Top Iranian officials admitted to the supreme leader that the U.S. naval blockade was crushing the economy, report says, as Trump eyes reimposing it
By Jason MaJuly 10, 2026
20 hours ago
Billionaire MacKenzie Scott just donated $20 million to support America’s youth mental health, as a fifth of teens struggle with suicidal thoughts
Success
Billionaire MacKenzie Scott just donated $20 million to support America’s youth mental health, as a fifth of teens struggle with suicidal thoughts
By Emma BurleighJuly 9, 2026
2 days ago
Farm groups saved Bayer in court over RoundUp cancer claims. Five days later, Bayer called for tariffs on the ingredient farmers rely on
Economy
Farm groups saved Bayer in court over RoundUp cancer claims. Five days later, Bayer called for tariffs on the ingredient farmers rely on
By Mia OsmonbekovJuly 9, 2026
2 days ago
Wyoming officials say Meta’s 715,000-square-foot data center is responsible for contaminating its water system with a rare bacterium
Environment
Wyoming officials say Meta’s 715,000-square-foot data center is responsible for contaminating its water system with a rare bacterium
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 10, 2026
22 hours ago
Current price of oil as of July 10, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 10, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 10, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.