• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

The Pentagon said Iran War costs $29 billion, but the real cost is closer to $200 billion—and counting

2

Now worth $200 million, Sarah Jessica Parker credits being ‘one of eight kids that struggled financially’ for her hunger, ambition, and work ethic

3

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup

1

The Pentagon said Iran War costs $29 billion, but the real cost is closer to $200 billion—and counting

2

Now worth $200 million, Sarah Jessica Parker credits being ‘one of eight kids that struggled financially’ for her hunger, ambition, and work ethic

3

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup

For economists, new disclosures, same problems

By
Nin-Hai Tseng
Nin-Hai Tseng
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Nin-Hai Tseng
Nin-Hai Tseng
Down Arrow Button Icon
February 10, 2012, 5:45 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

FORTUNE – Ever since the 2007-2008 financial crisis, the image of the noble economist tapped to fix the world’s economic troubles has turned on its head. Last month, the American Economic Association, the world’s largest organization for economists, adopted conflict-of-interest rules.

This was partly in response to criticism that economists not only failed to predict the financial crisis but may have also contributed to it. Many in the profession often serve as consultants to companies, government and other groups outside of their academic work. It seems innocent enough, but those relationships (often lucrative and sometimes undisclosed) can become problematic when they recommend policies that help the narrow interests of their clients at the expense of the economy as a whole.

This was suggested in the documentary Inside Job, which featured prominent economists’ ties to companies that later collapsed during the financial crisis. Under AEA’s new rules, economists are required to disclose financial ties and other potential conflicts of interest in papers published in academic journals.

Indeed, the move could restore some faith in the profession, but it doesn’t really get at the source of the problem. That is, avoiding conflicts of interests in the first place, says George DeMartino, a University of Denver professor and author of The Economist’s Oath: On the need for and content of professional economic ethics.

“The problem is a long standing one,” says DeMartino, adding that concerns rose as early as the 1920s when academic economists earned income from outside interests, particularly the public utilities industry. DeMartino notes the issue became so pressing that American Association of University Professors, an organization of U.S. professors and academics, created a committee to investigate the problem. It suggested a code of ethics related to funds from the private industry but the AEA never took up the matter.

MORE: Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds

And apparently little if anything changed over the years. In 2010, a study showed that a group of economists advising on the Dodd-Frank bill, which overhauled the federal government’s financial regulation framework, rarely disclosed their affiliations in their academic work. It found that economists behind the Squam Lake Report, which suggested a series of financial regulatory reforms, fully reported their affiliations in their academic work only 2.3% of the time, according to the Political Economy Research Institute at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.  In media appearances, they gave the full picture of their affiliations only 28% of the time. And those who were most transparent only disclosed 71% of the time.

To be fair, economists themselves don’t deserve all the bad rep. The field of economics is useful but it’s also an imperfect science, and over the years the public has increasingly come to rely on them to forecast events that are extraordinarily hard to predict. It seems every few months economists change their predictions of a likelihood of a U.S. double dip recession in what appears to be reactionary fashion.

Economists generally predict the behavior of firms based on a specific set of conditions, such as materials costs, labor costs and the like. But then it becomes harder to predict how the same firm would behave when you bring all kinds of psychological and emotional reactions into the picture.

It’s not as if the profession hasn’t acknowledged this. As economist and New York Times’ columnist has said: “As I see it, the economics profession went astray because economists, as a group, mistook beauty, clad in impressive-looking mathematics, for truth.”

So even if the AEA adopts a comprehensive code of ethics – which is needed and would improve the profession – it may not always make economists any better at predicting looming disasters. And that’s something the public will probably increasingly expect, if they haven’t already.

About the Author
By Nin-Hai Tseng
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

Getting past the pilot: Why so many AI test projects have trouble scaling
SuccessBrainstorm Tech
Getting past the pilot: Why so many AI test projects have trouble scaling
By Alexei OreskovicJune 24, 2026
8 hours ago
US says chemical maker Chemours will pay $450M in penalties and relief programs to three states to settle ‘forever chemicals’ case
EnvironmentEnvironment
US says chemical maker Chemours will pay $450M in penalties and relief programs to three states to settle ‘forever chemicals’ case
By The Associated PressJune 24, 2026
9 hours ago
A Viking ship named Havhingsten af Glendalough - the Sea Stallion of Glendalough -, the world's largest replica of a Viking warship, sets out 01 JUly 2007 from the Viking Museum in Roskilde, Denmark, on a voyage to Dublin in Ireland, where it is scheduled to arrive 14 August.
EuropeScience
1,000-year-old massive textile factory unearthed in Denmark—and it belonged to the Vikings
By James Brooks and The Associated PressJune 24, 2026
9 hours ago
‘Godmother of AI’ and tech entrepreneurs draw investors by pivoting from chatbots to ‘world models’ saying AI has to read the room, not just books
AIRobots
‘Godmother of AI’ and tech entrepreneurs draw investors by pivoting from chatbots to ‘world models’ saying AI has to read the room, not just books
By The Associated PressJune 24, 2026
9 hours ago
Trump’s Iran war provoked the Senate enough to get it to symbolically vote to curb his war powers for the first time
PoliticsDonald Trump
Trump’s Iran war provoked the Senate enough to get it to symbolically vote to curb his war powers for the first time
By The Associated PressJune 24, 2026
9 hours ago
‘We are in agony’: Today Show host Savannah Guthrie begs public for help as reports surface her missing 84-year-old mom might be dead
North AmericaMedia
‘We are in agony’: Today Show host Savannah Guthrie begs public for help as reports surface her missing 84-year-old mom might be dead
By The Associated PressJune 24, 2026
9 hours ago

Most Popular

The Pentagon said Iran War costs $29 billion, but the real cost is closer to $200 billion—and counting
Economy
The Pentagon said Iran War costs $29 billion, but the real cost is closer to $200 billion—and counting
By Jacqueline MunisJune 24, 2026
23 hours ago
Now worth $200 million, Sarah Jessica Parker credits being ‘one of eight kids that struggled financially’ for her hunger, ambition, and work ethic
Success
Now worth $200 million, Sarah Jessica Parker credits being ‘one of eight kids that struggled financially’ for her hunger, ambition, and work ethic
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 24, 2026
23 hours ago
After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup
Success
After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 23, 2026
2 days ago
Amazon's record Prime Day masks a darker truth: Americans are spending more and getting less
Retail
Amazon's record Prime Day masks a darker truth: Americans are spending more and getting less
By Nick LichtenbergJune 24, 2026
15 hours ago
Ray Dalio just finished a 10-day trip to China. He says global leaders know America ‘doesn’t have what it takes to fight to maintain its empire’
Asia
Ray Dalio just finished a 10-day trip to China. He says global leaders know America ‘doesn’t have what it takes to fight to maintain its empire’
By Nick LichtenbergJune 24, 2026
17 hours ago
Current price of gold as of June 23, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of gold as of June 23, 2026
By Danny BakstJune 23, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.