We built the greatest economy anywhere in the world, two months ago, and we're gonna build it again. We're gonna build it fast, it's gonna go very quickly. [ MUSIC ] In this alphabet soup that we have, of all of the letters of a potential recovery, for me, it looks like a W- shape. We're currently on a downward trajectory, of course, being brought by the health crisis Stemming an economic crisis. I do believe we'll see a resumption of economic activity just witnessing what we've seen play out and unfurl in Asia, across in Europe. The second downward trajectory of the W for me stemming from the The potential financial crisis that may result from the economic stops. And also as a result of some of the vulnerabilities having built up in the system . Then, I think you see a resumption of economic activity. Some of these vulnerabilities shaking out at the system and this miracle vaccine Start to bring us back up to the other side of the web. What I'm looking at is a potentially two year time horizon to be able to return to some form of stability, but I think you will see some distressed opportunity buying. Across the board in private equity pension funds in the private capital space, you will see M & A activity pick up again. So I would be looking to a two year period of some sort of semblance of stability. Just judging by history, I think it's probably going to take about four years for employment to really pick back up again. In the eurozone in the US. [ SOUND ] Some of the private credit markets, the growth of the private credit funds, as well as these non- financial. Non bank financial institutions I think, may struggle with some of this corporate debt. So seeing some of those shakeout I think will absolutely need to happen before you see a proper recovery. Crucially, the flexibility in the labor market for for workers to be able to come into sectors that are in demand. Throughout the waves of this, this health crisis and economic crisis is going to be crucial. I think the government may step in and need to step in to be able to support wages, because you're seeing a loss of hours, not necessarily jobs. And I just feel as if we've hollowed out the middle class in the US and we've also hollowed out the victim stock those small to medium and Enterprises. So you're seeing that with a lot of the distress of potential loan applicants to be able to access these funds. So I think this reveals the extent to which we do need to improve some of the lending capacities to be able to stimulate economic activity in sectors where it's naturally growing through small, medium enterprises. [ MUSIC ] What I would say is that if you do see a second wave, for me the economic impact is largely resting upon the financial vulnerabilities shaking out in the system. So some of those I'd have are the high- yield debt situation and leveraged loans here in the US. The relationship of passive investing to that debt, some of the ETFs to really look into the distress energy space. And that's where I think you may just see, you know, a downside impact be compounded with a downside impact, simply because some of these vulnerabilities are still floating on thin ice and having action. We cracked through and said that's where you may see a further deepening how powerful [ SOUND ] Some economies potentially more vulnerable than others. So I think you will see struggles in places like India, where manufacturing activity has been coming down, foreign direct investment drying up. Here in the US this exorbitant privilege of being the world's reserve currency leads to far more fiscal space whether or not that's healthy or not, and in places like Brazil, Colombia, India. Vietnam, Philippines, these governments may not have that same luxury. So it also may just take longer to be able to recover a bit. The eventual and inevitable downgrades that the ratings agencies will give, which means foreign direct investment may be slower to come. So it just may take longer. [ MUSIC ]

U.S. economic recovery: 5 questions about bouncing back from COVID-19

Finance

It could take years for the ship to right itself.

U.S. economic recovery: Bouncing back from COVID-19

It could take years for the ship to right itself.
