Name: Eastworld Spotlight: Forming a ‘united front’ against China
Uploaded: 2021-02-25
Duration: 8 min 51 s
Description: Lowy Institute’s Richard McGregor on how China’s rise redefined global ties.

Lowy Institute’s Richard McGregor on how China’s rise redefined global ties.

Eastworld Spotlight: Forming a ‘united front’ against China

International

Ah, Richard McGregor is a senior fellow at the Lowy Institute. He's an award winning journalist and written several outstanding book. The Party. The Secret World of China's Communist Rulers. Asia's Reckoning China, Japan. The Fate of US power in the Pacific Century. And most recently, she's been paying the backlash. I recommend all of those books. Richard is an old friend and thank you for joining us today. Thanks for having me, Clay. Richard, I wonder if I could start off just with kind of a broad question for you about the U. S. China relationship. We've got a new president. Do you expect that the U. S. China relationship will be significantly different under President Trump than it was President Biden than it was during President Trump? Well, it might be significantly different, but I don't think it will be significantly better. You know, I think we're we all, you know, understand. We're heading into a sort of long term contest between the US and China. It's, uh, multifaceted. It's about technology. It's about trade. It's about the economy. It's about regional power, its military, military and maybe even a contest of systems about ideology. If you like so all that I think is just baked into the cake at the moment. I guess an area where it might be significantly different is whether they can also cooperate while competing, in other words, on climate change, maybe on pandemics and the like. And I think there's an appetite in Washington for that. Uh, there probably is an appetite in Beijing for that, but it just depends whether they'll do it while the US is pressing them in other areas. So, um, that's how I'd sum it up. As you know, the Biden administration has said that, uh, one of the most significant ways in which they're approaching you and what China will differ from the Trump administration policies is that they'll break from this America first kind of go it alone approach that was the hallmark of the Trump administration and really pursue rebuilding America's relationships with its traditional allies. One area of focus of this discussion has been the four democracies of the Indo Pacific. We now call it, uh, this, uh, quadrille lateral strategic dialogue known as the quad, which includes the United States, Japan, India and Australia. Curious? What do you make of this effort? to bolster the quad. And is it possible? Well, I think the quad and alliances more generally is a fascinating issue. Um, I think we're actually going to see quite a lot of action on the quad. You know, India, Japan, the US and Australia. In coming months, the foreign minister has just had a telephone hookup. It's quite possible this year will have a leaders meeting of the quad, and that really ups the ante of that body. Quite significantly. If you're going to have a leader's meeting, you're going to have something. You have to have something to talk about. Some announce tables. So where's the quad? Was just this sort of, you know, loose, um, partnership between these countries a year or two ago. Remember that they, you know, was formed about 10 12 years ago, then fell apart. So they were sort of gradually reforming, and they didn't want to sort of, um, you know, over promises it were. But I think what the challenge from China is so much greater now. So that is really firming. Caught up. Each of the co ordinations has a different dynamic in their relationship with China, but I think The one thing in common they have is that they're all looking for options or looking for what we might call counter leverage precisely what the agenda will be, whether it will be cooperation on disaster management, something like that, or go go further than that. The security issues is up in the air, but we're going to see a lot more of the quad. I think from now on there are a lot of it seems conversations about how military cooperation can actually be increased among these Allied nations. Even to the extent, to my surprise, that it's now involving India, a country that has traditionally had a policy, a very explicit policy of non alignment, been wary of being perceived as too close to the United States for fear of being manipulated and from just kind of nothing bolts standpoint is, in any case, heavily dependent on equipment from Russia to run its military, which wouldn't mesh very well with with the U. S. And then do you see much scope for increased Indian participation in some sort of military cooperative arrangements? You know, I really do, you know, as you say, India has always been nonaligned. It's also also be on the trade front. Quite protectionist. Um, it's but this has been changing gradually for some time, particularly starting with George W. Bush administration, which negotiated a nuclear deal with India. But, you know, even then India, you know, would step back from alliances of any kind. And, you know, and I've always tried to remain skeptical. You know, you have many people in the West. You forget about that, naturally think India is going to come on board, and I've tried to be skeptical about that. I think the border clashes with China last year had decisively changed Indian thinking. Now they're not going to become a direct military ally and the like, but I think there's a deep disillusionment with China. You do remember, of course, that Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Modi had really lengthy one on one meetings and really a motive side in particular cutout officials from the relationship that was the so called the Wuhan Spirit. I think this is one of the cities where they met. Well, that's that sort of trust I think has gone Now the Indians, Uh, really there might be being disingenuous here. I don't think so they can't understand why they, you know, in their mind the Chinese pulled on a border dispute. But they've kind of lost trust. I think it's going to be very hard to rebuild it, because when you rebuild trust, you're also going to have to talk about the border. And that's difficult for both countries. India is looking for options. They've been close to Japan for some time. They're getting closer to Australia and, of course, the most important country of all the U. S. Which is very keen to build closer ties with India. Really interesting. So how, you know, you've written extensively and with great insight about the party and how it works and also about, um, paying himself. How does all this then? Look from, you know, inside Drunk man high? Uh, you see these conversations begining to, uh, take big form. Is Beijing worried about that, or not too concerned? Well, fascinating question, isn't it? Because when you look about it, China sometimes seems to be fighting with all the west. Western countries in Western countries are the richest countries in the world. They're fighting in fighting with the UK a little bit with France with Canada, big time. The US, Australia and the like New Zealand? A little, not too much. But you know, I mean, is this what China wants? Was this the aim of their policy? But then again, you say that Chinese and they say, Oh, really? You think we're struggling? Who's winning? Who's losing? Look at, Look at Look at us. Our economy is growing, the only major economy to grow. Last year we just did a big trade deal with Europe. We're getting on very well with Southeast Asia. We've got highly successful vaccine diplomacy being rolled out in Southeast Asia and Africa and also the Middle East and South America, actually. And so they go around the region telling other countries that America is a busted flush. You'd better stick with us from now on. So I think they're pretty confident, maybe overly confident. But, you know, they had. They had periods of confidence in recent years in 2000 and nine, when we had the financial crisis in 2 2016, when Mr Trump was elected. This time they seem really confident, you know, they think their systems working. They think the U. S. Is really struggling and won't get out of its hole very easily. So I think they're incrementally going to be just pushing out the wagon wherever they can. And if countries do cross them like Australia, then they'll punish them, and they're happy for other countries to see to see that happen.