To find out which housing markets are poised for home price declines, Fortune reached out to Moody’s Analytics to get access to its latest proprietary housing analysis. Economists at the financial intelligence firm calculated how house prices are likely to shift in 414 regional housing markets between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2023. They also forecast home price shifts between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2024.
But on a regional level, Moody's Analytics thinks it'll vary—a lot.
Among the nation's 414 largest housing markets, Moody’s Analytics’ forecast model predicts that 183 markets will see a year-over-year home price increase in 2023. The biggest forecasted 2023 home price jumps are in Albany, Ga. (4.12%); New Bern, N.C. (4.12%); Augusta, Ga. (3.84%); Hartford, Conn. (3.73%); and Casper, Wyo. (3.29%).
Another 231 markets, Moody's Analytics predicts, are likely to see home prices drop in 2023. The biggest forecasted 2023 home price drops are in The Villages, Fla. (-6.96%); Punta Gorda, Fla. (-6%); Reno (-5.57%); Honolulu (-5.56%); and Spokane, Wash. (5.52%).
While Moody’s Analytics’ forecast is far from a housing crash, it also isn't a rosy outlook. This summer, markets like Austin and Las Vegas are experiencing a stare-down between buyers and sellers. That could soon change. If Moody's Analytics’ forecast is right, sellers in markets like Austin and Las Vegas will begin to cave in 2023.
Now let's look at 2024.
Among the nation's 414 largest housing markets, Moody's Analytics predicts that 236 markets will see a year-over-year home price increase in 2024. The biggest forecasted 2024 home price jumps are in Albany, Ga. (5.5%); Casper, Wyo. (4.52%%); Columbus, Ga. (4.09%); Rocky Mount, N.C. (3.97%); and San Jose (3.83%).
Meanwhile, Moody's Analytics predicts 178 regional housing markets are likely to see home prices decline in 2023. The biggest forecasted 2024 home price drops are in The Villages, Fla. (-6.33%); Punta Gorda (-5.71%); Cape Coral, Fla. (-4.58%); Lake Havasu, Ariz. (-4.26%); and Spokane, Wash. (-4.11%).