As home prices cool, these are the nation’s 10 most overvalued housing markets

December 14, 2021, 4:11 PM UTC

If you’re a homeowner in Boise these days, it might be a good idea to plan on sticking around for a while.

The latest survey from Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University looks at the nation’s most overvalued homes and continues to show Idaho’s capital (and largest) city at the top of the list. Homes there in November were priced at an 80.5% premium, researchers said.

The updated list is similar to a survey put out by the schools in August in terms of which cities appear, but the premium has increased in many markets. And Atlanta has replaced Stockton, Calif., in the top 10. (Dallas failed to make the Top 10, but has also shown a steep increase in how much of a premium buyers are paying.)

While some of these cities are still showing up on lists of the fastest-growing markets, researchers say the numbers indicate housing prices in many metro areas are poised to flatten in the future, having neared or reached a peak of the current housing cycle. And buyers now purchasing a home in those areas should be prepared for a difficult time if they hope to resell for a higher value in the near future.

Some major cities are showing a much slower rate of housing price increases, researchers note, especially Los Angeles and Miami. That’s resulting in market premiums that are noticeably smaller than at the peak of the last housing cycle in 2007.

“This all suggests that some areas of the country learned a valuable lesson about prices, while others hold to the stubborn belief that housing prices grow to the sky,” said Ken H. Johnson, an economist at Florida Atlantic University’s College of Business.

Here’s a look at the 10 most overvalued markets and the premium buyers are currently paying (plus the change in the past four months):

  1. Boise, Idaho – 80.51% (–0.13%)
  2. Austin, Texas – 57.13% (+6.41%)
  3. Ogden, Utah – 54.46% (+4.76%)
  4. Provo, Utah – 49.18% (+3.02%)
  5. Phoenix, Ariz. – 48.94% (+6.63%)
  6. Spokane, Wash. – 47.61% (+2.4%)
  7. Las Vegas, Nev. – 47.42% (+5.54%)
  8. Detroit, Mich. – 47.28% (+1.71%)
  9. Salt Lake City, Utah – 42.41% (+4.61%)
  10. Atlanta, Ga. – 45.17% (+9.22%)

Not all the news is bad: Honolulu remains the most undervalued market, with homes selling for 1.6% less than they should.

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