The ‘In’ Campaign Pulled Ahead in Two New ‘Brexit’ Opinion Polls

June 20, 2016, 8:26 AM UTC
Stronger In Campaign Bus Continues The Brighter Future Tour
Photograph by Ian Forsyth—Getty Images

Three of six opinion polls published ahead of a June 23 referendum showed a shift towards keeping Britain in the European Union, but the race still looked too close to call.

The two polls based on the freshest surveys of voters—which were conducted almost entirely after the killing on Thursday of a British lawmaker—both put the “In” camp in the lead, reversing a recent rise in support for “Out.”

Prior to Saturday’s polls, in the period between June 10 and June 16, “Out” led in seven of nine polls, rattling investors.

Betting odds, provided by gambling firm Betfair on Sunday, gave the “In” campaign a 69% probability of winning, up from as low as 59% on Thursday.

Here is a summary of Saturday’s polls:


A Survation telephone poll for the Mail on Sunday put support for “In” at 45%, with “Out” on 42%.

Survation’s previous poll, which was published as recently as Thursday and was conducted for financial markets firm IG, had shown “Out” ahead of “In” by the same margin.

The new Survation poll was conducted on Friday and Saturday, after the murder of a member of parliament from the opposition Labour party who was a staunch “In” supporter.

John Curtice, a polling expert from Strathclyde University, told the Mail on Sunday it was “far from clear” if the turnaround was the result of criticism of the Leave campaign following the death of Jo Cox.


A YouGov online poll for the Sunday Times showed growing support for staying in the EU, giving a 44-43% lead for “In” and reversing a lead of seven points in a YouGov survey on June 13.

The new poll was based on interviews conducted on Thursday and Friday and two thirds of them were done after news broke of the killing of Cox, YouGov said.

But YouGov attributed the bounce to growing concerns among voters about the economic impact of a so-called Brexit rather than the attack, a boost for Prime Minister David Cameron who has tried to focus voters on the risks to the economy.


Another online YouGov poll, for ITV television, showed “Out” ahead of “In” by 44-42%, a much narrower margin than the seven-point lead found by YouGov earlier in the week.

The YouGov ITV poll was based on interviews conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, before news of the attack on Cox.


An online poll by Opinium for the Observer newspaper showed the “Out” campaign drawing level with “In” on 44 percent each.

Interviews took place between June 14 and 17, mostly before news of the attack on Cox reached respondents.

The previous Opinium/Observer poll, published on June 11, showed “In” ahead of “Out” by 44-42%.


Two polls—both conducted before the attack on Cox—by polling firm BMG for the Herald newspaper showed conflicting results. A phone poll gave the “In” campaign a 53.3-46.7% lead but a separate online poll gave “Out” a 10-point lead. BMG has not disclosed its telephone polling results previously. The online poll showed a bigger lead for Leave than before. But BMG said its telephone polls more accurately reflect public opinion.


The next polls are likely to appear around 2100 GMT on Monday when a weekly ORB survey is due on The Daily Telegraph website and The Times is expected to publish a YouGov survey.

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