Trump’s Odds of Winning the White House Just Got Cut in Half

Presidential Candidate Donald Trump Tours U.S. Border In Texas
Photograph by Matthew Busch — Getty Images

Republican candidate Donald Trump’s odds at becoming the next president of the United States took a hit following his loss to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas in the Iowa caucuses, two online betting sites said on Tuesday.

On Tuesday morning, both Ladbrokes and Paddy Power Betfair said the real estate tycoon’s odds of winning the November election were now 7/1, compared to 3/1 on Monday. That reduced his chances for victory to 13% from 25% on Monday.

Cruz won Monday’s Republican Iowa caucuses with 28% of the vote compared with 24% for Trump, whose aggressive and unorthodox campaign has been marked by unorthodox and controversial stances such as calls to temporarily ban Muslims from entering the United States or build a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border.

Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has taken over as the favorite to become the Republican nominee after a stronger-than-expected third place finish in the caucuses, Ladbrokes said. His odds for the nomination were 4/5 on Tuesday, giving him a 56% chance. Trump’s odds were 11/4, giving him a 27% chance.


“This could be the first sign that the Trump bubble is about to burst,” said Matthew Shaddick, head of political odds at Ladbrokes, said in a statement. “The betting is now firmly pointing toward a Clinton-Rubio showdown in November.”

Trump’s odds have improved since he declared his candidacy in June, when they were 100/1, giving him a 1% chance, Ladbrokes said.

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