Best and worst Apple analysts: Q3 2014 edition

July 23, 2014, 12:50 PM UTC

Although they took six of the seven top spots in this quarter’s Earnings Smackdown, fiscal Q3 2014 was not a clean win for our amateur Apple analysts. The pros’ more conservative estimates served them well in the revenue and iPhone columns. The more bullish amateurs did better on gross margin and earnings per share.

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Blue = pro, green = amateur. Click to enlarge.


A few performances worth noting:

  • Kudos to the Braeburn group’s Michel Contant for his first-place win in Rev. & EPS, and to Pacific Crest’s Andy Hargreaves for taking No. 1 in All Categories.
  • A tip of the hat to three amateurs — Asymco’s Horace Dediu, Sand Hill’s Chuck Jones and Ovi Popescu — for nailing Apple’s $1.28 EPS to the penny.
  • About Exane BNP Paribas’ Alexander Peterc, who overestimated revenues by $2.6 billion (7%) and Cowen’s Timothy Arcuri, who underestimated EPS by $0.11 (8.6%), the less said the better.

Below: Our annotated master spreadsheet, with the best estimates highlighted in bright green, the second and third best in light green, the worst in red and the second and third worst in pink.

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Thanks once again to Posts at Eventide‘s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.

Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter at @philiped. Read his Apple (AAPL) coverage at or subscribe via his RSS feed.