If you wonder why Apple shares go down when sales go up…
The two analysts have a lot on their plate: Google’s (GOOG) sale of Motorola to Lenovo, reports of a Samsung-Google nonaggression pact, Facebook’s (FB) new Paper app for IOS, and a bunch of quarterly reports starting with Apple (AAPL).
It’s the first five minutes of the podcast — in which Evans explains why the attached chart of Tuesday’s price action looks the way it does — that I recommend to my readers. Especially those readers (you know who you are) who think Wall Street must be full of morons.
“No, Wall Street are not morons,” says Evans, treating the Street as a plural noun. “Wall Street are trying to work out what the company is and what it’s going to be in five years time.”
“There is an upper limit on the number of people who can buy $600 phones, and the question for the last two years, really, has been is how far away is Apple from hitting that.”
Evans lays out the meat of his argument by the 5:00-minute mark, but stick with the podcast if you have another 50 minutes to spare. Evans and Bajarin suggest, among other things, that there’s probably nothing Jony Ive can make or do — not even an iWatch or a $300 iPhone — that will return Apple to the 74% compound annual growth it racked up between 2004 and 2013.
(Apologies in advance for the glitchy audio.)
Mentioned in the podcast: Evans’ Smartphone market share is not a metric.