• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military

2

'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032

3

Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there

1

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military

2

'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032

3

Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there

All eyes on Apple’s earnings: Estimates are sharply divided

By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
July 24, 2012, 8:31 AM ET

Click to enlarge. Source: Asymco via http://pixxa.com/perspective

FORTUNE — It’s one of the most closely watched corporate events of the season: Apple’s (AAPL) earnings report for the most recent quarter, set for release after the markets close today. It will be followed, I’d wager, by more analysts, investors and fund managers than the earnings statements of any other public company, large or small.

To prepare for the report, I’ve gathered the estimates of 68 Apple analysts — half of them professionals who follow the company for banks or brokerage houses, and half independents, a collection of day traders, bloggers and individual investors who do it for fun and, we assume, their own profit.

We’ve posted the results below the fold, sorted this time by the bottom line — earnings per share — with the pros in blue and the indies in green.

What stands out when sorted this way is how sharply divided the estimates are, with the more bullish indies clustered on the top and the more cautious pros — with one exception — on the bottom.

If you look at average estimates for each category, from revenue to gross margin, you can see that the biggest gaps are in EPS and iPad unit sales. There’s a general consensus that the growth in iPad sales will be the big story this quarter, but considerable disagreement about big it will turn out to have been.



The other number to watch is iPhone unit sales. Again, there’s a consensus that iPhone sales will be down from last quarter’s 35 million, but because the iPhone contributes more half of Apple’s revenue (57.9% in fiscal Q2) and an even larger share of its profits, small differences in unit sales can lead to big differences on the bottom line.

Finally,  I’d like to say a word about how I gather these estimates.

Some come by e-mail (or via the Braeburn Group‘s Robert Paul Leitao) as simple lists of seven numbers. Some come in the form of elaborate spreadsheets. Some I extract from the notes the pros send to clients — and, helpfully, to Fortune‘s hard-working library staff —  offering varying levels of explanatory detail.

But nobody offers more detail than Horace Dediu, who discusses his methodology on his Asymco blog and his Critical Path podcast. He set a new high bar for clarity and expository detail Monday by delivering his latest estimates in the form of a “padcast” — an iPad slideshow (with audio commentary) presented via Pixxa’s new Perspective app. The app is free. Dediu’s presentation is $0.99. (The revenue screen grab at the top of this post was taken from the app.)

Below the fold:  The full list of analysts estimates. We’ll find out whose were closest to the mark when the earnings hit the business wires this afternoon, most likely around 4:30 p.m. Eastern. An earnings call with analysts is scheduled to begin at 5 p.m. You can listen in on the webcast here. We’ll be posting our quarterly Earnings Smackdown — ranking the analysts’ performances from best to worst — the next morning.


Click to enlarge.
About the Author
By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

Digital sovereignty isn’t the same thing as digital isolation. Asia’s governments should be careful
Commentarydata sovereignty
Digital sovereignty isn’t the same thing as digital isolation. Asia’s governments should be careful
By Leonard LimJune 10, 2026
41 minutes ago
The curse of Trump watching sports in person: the home team seems to always lose
Arts & EntertainmentDonald Trump
The curse of Trump watching sports in person: the home team seems to always lose
By The Associated Press and Will WeissertJune 10, 2026
1 hour ago
Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates (C) arrives for a closed-door interview with the House Oversight Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on June 10, 2026.
LawBill Gates
Gates testifies on Epstein: previous Fortune investigation reveals payments to his ex-girlfriend, $1M Microsoft deal
By Eva Roytburg, Joey Cappelletti, Hannah Schoenbaum and The Associated PressJune 10, 2026
2 hours ago
How the World Cup is a high-stakes stage for Big Tech’s AI push
NewslettersCIO Intelligence
How the World Cup is a high-stakes stage for Big Tech’s AI push
By John KellJune 10, 2026
3 hours ago
‘I love the inflation’: Trump is ‘not concerned’ about inflation hitting 4% for the first time since 2023. ‘The numbers were great’
EconomyDonald Trump
‘I love the inflation’: Trump is ‘not concerned’ about inflation hitting 4% for the first time since 2023. ‘The numbers were great’
By The Associated Press and Christopher RugaberJune 10, 2026
3 hours ago
A man guides a ship in the water.
EnergyOil
Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer
By Sasha RogelbergJune 10, 2026
4 hours ago

Most Popular

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
Asia
Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
By Kate O'Keeffe and BloombergJune 8, 2026
2 days ago
'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032
Economy
'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032
By Nick LichtenbergJune 9, 2026
1 day ago
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
Success
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
By Preston ForeJune 8, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of June 9, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 9, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 9, 2026
1 day ago
Wall Street dumped nearly $1 trillion in tech stocks by midday—then clawed it back and bought peanut butter and paint
Investing
Wall Street dumped nearly $1 trillion in tech stocks by midday—then clawed it back and bought peanut butter and paint
By Eva RoytburgJune 9, 2026
24 hours ago
Current price of silver as of Tuesday, June 9, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of silver as of Tuesday, June 9, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 9, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.