Analysts estimate that Apple may have sold as many as 90 million between 2007 and 2010
Next week, when Apple (AAPL) releases its earnings for the quarter that ended Christmas Day, it will be closing the books on the era of AT&T (T) exclusivity in the U.S. — the company’s largest single market for iPhones.
It was an extraordinary run, despite all the jokes about dropped calls and flaky service. Since Apple launched its touchscreen smartphone on June 24, 2007, iPhone sales have become the single largest contributor to its bottom line, accounting for 38.6% of the company’s revenue in 2010. As of September, Apple had sold a total of 73.7 million iPhones worldwide, generating $45.6 billion in revenue.
Estimates for how many it sold last quarter are, as usual, all over the lot. Among the 33 analysts we polled, predictions ranged from a low of 14 million (from Morgan Keegan’s Travis McCourt) to a high of 18.35 million (from blogger Dennis Hildebrand of Apple’s Gold). The average of all the estimates — 15.78 million — would bring worldwide iPhone sales in the pre-Verizon (VZ) era to more than 89.6 million.
Below the fold: The Q1 2011 iPhone unit sales estimates we’ve gathered so far. We’ll find out who was closest to the mark after the closing bell Jan. 18.
Included, where available, are the analysts’ ranking in the so-called Deagol scale — a measure of how closely their estimates matched results over the previous three quarters as compiled by an amateur Venezuelan analyst with one of the best track records in the business. His real name is Daniel Tello and he posts his numbers at Deagol’s AAPL Model.
| Analyst, Affiliation | Units (millions) | Date of est. | Deagol rank |
| Dennis Hildebrand, Apple’s Gold | 18.35 | 12/28/10 | 25 |
| Rajesh Ghai, Think Equity | 17.00 | 11/29/10 | 35 |
| Mark Beauch, Apple Finance Board | 16.90 | 12/27/10 | NA |
| Jeff Fosberg, Apple Finance Board | 16.80 | 12/29/10 | 13 |
| Nicolae Mihalache, Traderhood | 16.75 | 12/30/10 | 30 |
| Robert Paul Leitao, Apple Finance Board | 16.75 | 1/2/11 | 11 |
| Alexis Cabot, Apple Finance Board | 16.72 | 12/23/10 | 8 |
| Daniel Tello, Deagol’s AAPL Model | 16.52 | 12/23/10 | 3 |
| Brian While, Ticonderoga | 16.22 | 1/4/11 | NA |
| Matthew Hoffman, Cowen & Co. | 16.20 | 12/16/10 | 33 |
| Patrick Smellie, Apple Finance Board | 16.16 | 12/29/10 | 24 |
| Horace Dediu, Asymco | 16.16 | 12/29/10 | 1 |
| T. Michael Walkley, Canaccord Genuity | 16.10 | 1/4/11 | 31 |
| Brian Marshall, Gleacher & Co. | 16.00 | 12/29/10 | 27 |
| Shaw Wu, Kaufman Bros. | 16.00 | 12/16/10 | 34 |
| Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank | 16.00 | 1/3/11 | 14 |
| Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley | 16.00 | 12/29/10 | 29 |
| Richard Gardner, Citigroup | 16.00 | 12/2/10 | 21 |
| Nehal Chokshi, Technology Insights | 15.73 | 1/4/11 | 10 |
| Turley Muller, Financial Alchemist | 15.70 | 12/29/10 | 4 |
| William Power, Baird | 15.20 | 11/4/10 | NA |
| Maynard Um, UBS | 15.60 | 12/28/10 | 20 |
| Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch | 15.10 | 12/9/10 | 22 |
| Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna | 15.10 | 11/29/10 | 17 |
| Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer | 15.00 | 1/3/11 | 9 |
| Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray | 15.00 | 11/29/10 | 28 |
| Charlie Wolf, Needham | 15.00 | 10/19/10 | NA |
| Hendi Susanto, Gabelli & Co. | 14.90 | 12/17/10 | NA |
| Bill Shope, Goldman Sachs | 14.87 | 12/12/10 | 19 |
| Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital | 14.80 | 11/9/10 | 18 |
| Doug Reid, Stifel Nicholaus | 14.24 | 12/30/10 | 23 |
| Daniel Ernst, Hudson Square | 14.00 | 12/29/10 | 40 |
| Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan | 14.00 | 12/30/10 | 36 |
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[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]
