U.S. President Donald Trump listens during a swearing in ceremony of White House senior staff in the East Room of the White House in Washington, Jan. 22, 2017.
Photograph by Andrew Harrer—Bloomberg/Getty Images
By Lucinda Shen
January 24, 2017

The bull market is reaching its life expectancy.

This is to say the newly inaugurated President Donald Trump will lead the U.S. through its next recession, market strategist Ed Yardeni wrote in a Tuesday note to clients. In fact, the president of Yardeni Research predicts that based on historical data, the current bull run is likely to end March 2019.

Yardeni analyzed data since 1965, and found that on average, economic expansions have lasted about 65 months — or 5 1/2 years. Unlike most strategists who see 2009 as the start of the current economic expansion, Yardeni marked that date as November 2013 based on his “benchmark model.”

 

Yardeni’s benchmark model is based on the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators, which includes payroll employment, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and industrial production.

Granted, Yardeni’s work should be taken with a grain of salt. The strategist previously said Y2K could cause a global recession.

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