By Lucinda Shen
January 24, 2017

On Monday, President Donald Trump solidified his “America First” protectionist trade stance by making one of his first acts as president the U.S.’s formal withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Now economists and businesses are wondering how the North American Free Trade Agreement, a deal that Trump has heavily criticized and pledged to abandon on the campaign trail, will fare.

Trump revealed on Sunday that he has already planned meetings with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto to renegotiate NAFTA, the 23-year-old trade pact between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico which effectively eliminated all tariffs between the trio.

If the negotiation ends with NAFTA in a bad state, it could result in a full-on trade war. Mexico’s economy minister on Monday warned that his country would mirror the U.S.’s actions should NAFTA be scaled back, Reuters reported.

Many U.S. and Mexican companies would also be caught in the crossfire as a result. Here’s a look at which companies could see their profits cut should tariffs between the countries be reimplemented.

This list focuses on the companies with most exposure to Mexico, as the southern neighbor seems to be the main target of the renegotiations. The head of a business advisory council to Trump, Stephen Schwarzman, said Monday that Canada has a “special status,” and is unlikely to be hit hard by the renegotiations, Reuters reported. Furthermore, Trump has largely focused on the countries where he says most U.S. jobs have flown in the past few years—one of them being Mexico.

It should also be noted that many Wall Street analysts aren’t expecting the U.S. to fully withdraw from NAFTA. After all, the U.S.’s current economy is heavily dependent on its southern neighbor. Mexico was the U.S.’s second-largest export market, and third-largest supplier in 2015, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative.

“Investors should expect that Trump’s statements contain an element of early stage negotiation positioning,” said Evercore ISI’s Terry Haines in a Monday note to clients.

Kansas City Southern

Kansas City Southern is the S&P 500 company with the most revenue exposure to Mexico, according to John Butters over at FactSet. The railway company helps transfer goods between the U.S. and Mexico, and roughly 48.4% of its revenue is exposed to Mexico. Already, the company has been dealt a blow by since Trump’s election: shares of the railway stock tumbled after Ford Motors said it would no longer build a $1.6 billion Mexican plant—a factory that Kansas City Southern investors had expected to be a new customer.

Union Pacific attributes roughly 10% of its revenue to Mexico, according to Butters. Still, the company’s stock has risen 14% since Trump’s election, largely due to expectations that U.S. coal and energy production will ramp up.

Shares of Kansas City have fallen 7.3% since Trump’s victory on Nov. 8.

 

Constellation Brands

A pullback of NAFTA could raise booze prices for some consumers of foreign-made alcohol. According to Pablo Zuanic at Susquehanna Financial Group, 70% of Constellation’s earnings come from importing its Mexican beer brands such as Corona and Modelo to the U.S. The higher tariffs that would come with NAFTA’s end could make those beers more costly for consumers, lowering demand.

Trump has also threatened to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, who could potentially be followed by their families. Zuanic notes that such an exodus would decrease Constellation’s U.S. consumer base. Roughly one-third of Corona consumption in the U.S. can be attributed to Hispanics, Zuanic wrote in a Sept. 26 note.

Shares of Constellation have fallen 9% since Trump’s election.

Delphi Automotive

Bank of America called the U.K.-based auto parts makers, Delphi Automotive, one of the riskiest stocks under a Trump presidency in a Nov. 9 note. That’s because about 36% of Delphi’s total sales come from the U.S., but Delphi serves the market mostly from Mexico, according to the companies 2015 annual report. While Delphi has 61,000 employees in Mexico, it has just 5,000 in the U.S., according to the company’s January Automotive Logistics presentation.

Still, shares of the auto parts maker have held on, staying relatively flat since Trump’s election partially due to the company’s headway in the autonomous driving space.

 

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