Janet Yellen, Chair of the Federal Reserve
Photograph by Samuel Corum—Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
By Stephen Gandel
June 21, 2016

A recession this year? Not likely. That at least is the opinion of Janet Yellen, the chair of the Federal Reserve.

Asked on Tuesday in a Senate hearing whether Brexit would push the U.S. into recession, Yellen said she didn’t think so.

“I think it’s quite low,” said Yellen. “Recession is not what I would expect.”

Yellen also said in general she thinks the chances of a recession in 2016 are low, despite recent some poor economic news. Last month, the economy added just 38,000 jobs. Yellen said whatever slowdown the economy saw in the Spring was temporary. She said that the Fed has recently seen a strong pick up in consumer spending.

She did not that manufacturing is being hurt by the strong dollar, and that the drop in oil prices has hurt jobs in certain regions of the country, as well as investment in the energy section. Still, Yellen said that all of the normal conditions that seem to proceed a recession, like high inflation, don’t seem to be there.

“I think the U.S. economy is doing well and although I’ve indicated that we’re watching this recent slowdown in the job market carefully,” said Yellen. “My expectation is that the U.S. economy will continue to grow.”

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