Donald Trump on November 19, 2015 in Newton, Iowa.
Photograph by Scott Olson—Getty Images

The Economist's Intelligence Unit says he could cause a trade war.

By Claire Groden
March 17, 2016

The potential of a President Donald Trump is one of the top ten risks to the global economy, according to a report by The Economist Intelligence Unit.

Trump in the White House could lead to a trade war, the forecast warned, due to his “exceptionally hostile [position] towards free trade” and confrontational stance toward Mexico and China. His rhetoric about the Middle East and proposed ban on Muslims in the United States would also serve as a powerful recruiting tool for jihadis.

The report, which The Economist Intelligence Unit publishes each month, listed the top ten events that could destabilize the global economy. A Trump presidency, which the unit determined was moderately probable, was ranked alongside potential events like China experiencing a hard landing and the United Kingdom voting to exit the European Union.

This forecast marks the first time the firm has ever placed the potential election of a U.S. candidate in its list of top global risks. “It’s highly unusual, and I don’t think we ever have done it where we’ve had a single politician be the center of our risk items,” The Economist Intelligence Unit’s global risk briefing manager Robert Powell told Politico.

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