The stock market has been falling. Corporate profits have flat-lined. The price of oil has plunged on concerns about weak growth in China and elsewhere in the world. There are growing worries about the banks. And CEOs, like Pepsi Indra Nooyi, are saying the economy looks as rocky as they have ever seen it. Nonetheless, the party line on Wall Street is still that we are not headed for a recession. A recent poll of Wall Street economists put the chance of a recession occurring in 2016 at 21%, up from a year ago, but still relatively low. What’s more, many of the key measures of the U.S. economy, namely the unemployment rate at below 5%, are still quite good.
Of course, eventually there will be another economic downturn, and at the end of February the current expansion will have gone on for 80 months. The post-World War II average is 58, so we are overdue. What do you think? Vote below.