A pedestrian carries shopping bags in Hong Kong, China.
Photograph by Jerome Favre — Bloomberg via Getty Images
By Scott Cendrowski
December 3, 2015

The staff of Fortune recently assembled its predictions for 2016. Here’s one of our forecasts.

China has lowered its official GDP growth target to 6.5% for 2016, and actual growth is likely to be lower than that. Expect continued cuts to interest rates and bank reserve ratio requirements, as the government scrambles to engineer a soft landing. But the surprising health of the Chinese consumer will keep forecasts of a crash from coming true. Notably, Chinese housing values will continue to rise, buoyed by falling inventories in many major cities. The rest of the world will get a chance to adjust to slower but still steady growth in China.

This article is part of the 2016 Fortune Crystal Ball, a package of 33 predictions about business, politics and the economy by the writers and editors of Fortune. To see the entire package, click here.


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