By John Kell and Alan Murray
June 30, 2015

Today, Greece seems likely to become the first developed country ever to default on an IMF loan.

 

 

In theory, this should be a non-event for global markets and business. Greece is a tiny country, its “crisis” has been brewing for six years, and its debt is now mostly to official sources – governments and central banks – not private creditors. But as New York Fed President Bill Dudley told the Financial Times Friday, people tend to “underestimate all the different channels in terms of how contagion works.” We’ll be covering the day’s events in our live blog.

 

 

Separately, the rise of the “freelance economy” has become a popular storyline for journalists and tech investors, as Uber, Taskrabbit, Airbnb and other online marketplaces show exploding growth. The Dismal Scientist blog yesterday doused some useful cold water on the trend. Using the government’s Current Population Survey, Adam Ozimek pointed out that 1) self-employment in the U.S. is declining, and at its lowest point in the last 70 years; 2) the share of the employed reporting they have multiple jobs is also declining and at a 20-year low; and 3) full-time employment, while down sharply after the financial crisis, is on the rise and heading back to normal.

 

 

I’m inclined to believe technology is transforming the nature of work. But for the bulk of the population, it just hasn’t registered yet. Remember Amara’s Law: We tend to overestimate the effects of technology in the short run and underestimate them in the long run. The same could be said for the value of technology companies.

 

 

More below.

 

 

Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com

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