By Tom Huddleston Jr. and Alan Murray
June 16, 2015

When will the next downturn hit?

 

Anne Richards, chief investment officer of Aberdeen Asset Management, told our Most Powerful Women confab in London this morning that the global economic picture appears to be “quite benign …for the next twelve months.” But she warned that risk has been priced out of a number of credit markets. “I can’t say what the right price is, but I’m reasonably certain that a lot of markets are now priced wrongly.”

 

Such mis-priced markets should be taken as early warning signs. Growing concern about the market for “unicorns” – start-ups valued at more than one billion dollars – is another. And recent wild fluctuations around China’s Hanergy, which makes thin-filmed solar power panels and saw its share price plummet nearly 50% last month, are yet another. (The latest on Hanergy here.) I’m not making a prediction here. But the business cycle hasn’t been repealed, despite the best efforts of free-spending central banks, and it’s probably time to start looking for the next turn.

 

 

Meanwhile, if the rat race is getting tedious, you might take inspiration from Roz Savage, now on stage in London. She left her management consulting job a decade ago to spend five months rowing across the Atlantic Ocean in a 23-foot rowboat. She subsequently rowed across the Pacific and the Indian Oceans as well. How did she make it? “It’s very difficult to quit in the middle of the ocean,” she says. “You can’t just take a bus home.”

 

Enjoy the day.

 

 

 

Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com

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