FORTUNE — Apple’s (AAPL) Mac sales haven’t been hurt as much as Windows PC’s have by the rise of tablets and smartphones. But Mac shipments peaked in late 2011, and the best Apple can probably hope for now is that they hold up better than everybody else’s.
The analysts we polled in advance of Monday’s fiscal fourth quarter earning report don’t expect much from the Mac this time around.
Of the 43 we’ve heard from so far — 22 professionals and 21 amateurs — nobody except maybe FBN’s Shelby Seyrafi thinks Mac sales actually grew year-over-year last quarter, and I have to believe he rounded up to get to 5 million. (See below.)
The average unit sales estimate among all 43 analysts is 4.26 million Macs, down 13% from last year’s 4.92 million. In a reversal of their usual roles, the pros (at 4.35 million) are more bullish than the amateurs (4.17 million).
Seyrafi’s 5 million is the high estimate. Independent Ovi Popescu has the low at 3.6 million.
We’ll find out who was nearest the mark Monday after the markets close.
Below: The individual analyst’s estimates — pros in blue, indies in green. Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide‘s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.