FORTUNE — Daring Fireball‘s John Gruber delivered one of his increasingly rare long-form essays Wednesday, and it’s a good one.
It’s structured around the three leading arguments being made these days in the media and on the Street for why Apple (AAPL) is doomed. He summarizes them as follows:
- Apple bear argument 1: Superior design doesn’t matter in the long run, the mobile market will be commoditized by “good enough” competitors.
- Apple bear argument 2: Quality matters but iOS devices have already lost their edge, and are no longer superior to competing devices from Samsung, Google, or Amazon. iOS devices just cost more.
- Apple bear argument 3: Design doesn’t matter, app developers and peripheral makers will flock to Android simply because of raw market share, even if that market share is almost entirely at the low end of the market.
Gruber wrestles the three bears one by one, drawing on recent essays by Ben Thompson (What Clayton Christensen Got Wrong), Horace Dediu (“Apple has always been priced as a company that is in a perpetual state of free-fall“), Jean-Louis Gassée (Apple Market Share: Facts and Psychology) and Ben Bajarin (It’s Tough Competing With the iPhone).
The dean of Apple bloggers lands, not surprisingly, deep in Apple’s corner. Drawing on the oft-cited Mac-vs.-Windows analogy, he concludes:
For anyone concerned that Apple might in fact be doomed, it’s a must read.