By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
September 10, 2013


FORTUNE — It’s no secret that Apple (AAPL) hopes to capture some of the developing world’s untapped market (and some of the more price-conscious consumers at home) by introducing a new, lower-priced iPhone at today’s special event in Cupertino.

What we don’t know is how cheap the cheaper iPhone will be.

The fact that the iPhone 5C needs to be sold in both subsidized and unsubsidized markets makes the pricing tricky. For a backgrounder on how that works, I recommend Ben Thompson’s Thinking About iPhone Pricing on his Stratechery blog.

But let’s keep it simple here and just try to guess the unsubsidized price.

[The unsubsidized prices for the current lineup, as reader Jonas Ensby helpfully points out, are $450 (iPhone 4), $550 (iPhone 4S) and $650 (iPhone 5).]

We’ll find out what price point Tim Cook settled on soon enough. Tuesday’s special event begins at 10 a.m. Pacific (1 p.m. Eastern).

The gods of Wi-Fi willing, we’ll be live blogging it from Apple’s Town Hall.

UPDATE: I’ve closed the poll now that we have the actual unsubsidized price from the company’s website: $549. That surprised most Apple watchers, including 94.2% of the readers who participated in our little guessing game.

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