FORTUNE — Yesterday I wrote about possible storm clouds for private equity-backed IPOs, with early rumblings being disappointing offerings from CDW Inc.
and HD Supply (HDS). My basic argument was that public equity investors are worried that such issuers will no longer be able to refinance debt at generous terms, as a result of Fed tapering of its bond-buying program (either expected or executed).
But it clearly is more hypothesis than anything else, since two IPOs is a statistically insignificant sample. And it’s not a hypothesis with anything close to universal agreement.
For example, CDW CEO Tom Richards told me yesterday that he heard nothing about debt refinancing concerns during his company’s IPO roadshow, pointing out that his company has consistently reduced its debtload since being taken private.
And Scott Cutler, head of global listings for the New York Stock Exchange, said he believed the CDW and HD Supply situations were the result of public investors taking advantage of macro market tumult to drive down prices. In other words, opportunism rather than fears of fundamentals.
Unfortunately, we’re unlikely to get much more clarity until the week of July 15. Next week is a wash for IPOs due to the July 4 holiday, and so is the following week since issuers can’t road-show when buyers are on vacation.
Cutler says there are a number of PE-backed companies on the calendar for the third week of July, so let’s reconvene on this issue then. Maybe we’ll even know who succeeds Ben Bernanke by then…
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