By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
June 24, 2013

FORTUNE — Apple’s (AAPL) shares were trading at $413.50 when Jefferies’ Peter Misek wrote the note to clients over the weekend that lowered his 12-month price target from $420 to $405.

Misek has come a long way from last December, when we reported that he’d raised his iPhone estimates but lowered his price target from $900 to $800.

He’s turned into one of the most bearish of the 60 or 70 analysts who cover Apple. But by luck or prescience Misek seems to have a better sense of where the market is headed than the average Wall Street analyst, who according to Thomson/First Call has price target of $541 and by my spreadsheet is currently at $549.

Apple opened Monday at $407.40, down $6.10 (1.5%) from Friday’s close.

At 11:23 a.m. it touched $398.05, its lowest price since April.

Misek has a Hold rating on the stock. The chart above, produced by the Bespoke Investment Group and posted on Seeking Alpha¬†under the headline Analysts Slowly Sour on Apple,¬†traces the percentage of analysts’ Buy ratings over the past 13 years. It’s hovering now at three out of four.

See also: Trailing indicators: Analysts’ price targets vs. Apple’s shares

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