There's no product, but the usual suspects are already measuring its failure and success

By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
February 12, 2013

FORTUNE — That didn’t take long.

The ink had hardly dried on the
New York Times
‘ and the
Wall Street Journal
‘s reports that Apple AAPL might be working on a wrist watch-size iOS device when the handicappers swooped in for the kill.

Two reports caught my eye:

  • The Motley Fool’s 5 Reasons Why Apple’s iWatch Will Fail. “I can’t bring myself to read past the headline,” writes reader Jim Neal. Indeed, is there another company whose products the Motley Fool’s reporters measure for a coffin before they have time to be born?
  • Morgan Stanley’s iWatch market opportunity. “While we have no specific knowledge of iWatch,” writes Katy Huberty in a note to clients, “our market analysis suggests an incremental $10B to $15B revenue or $2.50 to $4.00 EPS opportunity annually.” And if there is no iWatch, do we subtract $10 to $15 billion?

You May Like