The average Apple analyst’s price target has fallen to $740 by Philip Elmer-DeWitt @FortuneMagazine December 28, 2012, 1:25 PM EDT E-mail Tweet Facebook Google Plus Linkedin Share icons FORTUNE — Analysts tend to get nervous when a stock they follow drifts too far from their published price target, and few stocks are as widely followed or as far out of whack as Apple AAPL . Eleven analysts lowered their Apple targets in the final weeks of the company’s first fiscal quarter of 2013, which ends Saturday. And although the average of the 48 we polled is now $740, that’s $225 (44%) above the stock’s closing price Thursday. By comparison, AOL AOL — on a rebound that made it one of the hottest tech stocks of the year — is trading 39% below its mean target. Microsoft MSFT is at 28%, Google GOOG at 13%, Amazon AMZN at 12% and Hewlett-Packard HPQ at -4%, which means it’s trading for more than analysts think it’s going to be worth a year from now. Click to enlarge. Below the fold, I’ve posted an updated list of the latest published price targets. I’ve also created the frequency chart at right. It tends to isolate the outliers (including a low of $270 and a high of $1,100). You can see pretty clearly that 30 of our 48 analysts expect Apple to hit somewhere between $700 and $800 before the end of 2013. It closed Thursday at $515.06. Below: The individual price targets, with the December changes highlighted in yellow.