FORTUNE — Noting that Apple (AAPL) can’t build iPhone 5s fast enough to meet demand, a slightly defensive Gene Munster on Friday rattled off the reasons Piper Jaffray still believes Apple will sell at least 49 million units in the quarter that starts next week:
- 65% of consumers surveyed last summer said they planned to buy an iPhone for their next phone.
- In the same survey, 94% of iPhone owners said they planned to buy another iPhone.
- In a more recent poll of 1,000 consumers online, 35% hoped to get a smartphone for Christmas. Of those consumers, 63% hoped to get an iPhone.
- Despite negative reviews for the new Maps app, 71% of tweets about the iPhone 5 after the announcement were positive compared with 49% for the iPhone 4S.
- Demand remains high. In a survey of 20 stores, only 4 had iPhone 5s in stock, and they were all Sprint phones for sale in smaller U.S. cities.
- Given how many consumers say they want an iPhone, it seems unlikely to Munster that they will opt for a different smartphone instead of waiting for an iPhone 5.
Summarizing his three reasons for optimism, Munster writes: