The effect of releasing it this quarter (as rumored) rather than next (as expected)
FORTUNE — With all the talk of a new iPhone launch in September — rather than October, as previously rumored — I had expected to see the Apple AAPL analysts rushing to adjust their models accordingly.
After all, any iPhone sales made on or before Sept. 29 — the last day of Apple’s fourth fiscal quarter of 2012 — would get counted as revenue in a quarter that all of Wall Street expected to be another disappointment.
Finally on Wednesday Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster addressed the issue. He still hasn’t updated his model — and neither, he says, have the other Apple analysts — but he did do the math. (See spreadsheet, above.)
The Street is currently expecting Apple to sell 23 million iPhones in Q4, not 27.19 million.
To complete his calculation, Munster writes, he would have to reduce his estimate of iPhone sales in the December quarter (fiscal Q1 2013), currently at 49 million.
But it all evens out in the end, he says: