FORTUNE — “We see a reasonable probability that Apple will miss consensus revenue expectations due to macroeconomic weakness in China and Europe, a product cycle lull in the iPhone, a later than expected introduction of the new iPad into China, and the late quarter introduction of new Mac notebooks.”
So begins the note to clients issued Friday by Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi in which he lowered most of his estimates, from iPhone unit sales to his top to bottom lines, for Apple’s (AAPL) third fiscal quarter — one of the factors that helped drive the company’s shares down $10.02 (1.63%) for the day.
“We are a bit torn on Apple’s stock,” Bernstein concluded, “but on balance believe that it risks treading water or underperforming coming out of earnings.”
Apple will report its Q3 2012 earnings after the markets close on Tuesday, July 24. See here for our round-up of analysts’ estimates.
Below the fold: Zaky’s chart.