Analyst: Facebook at $66 per share

Jun 26, 2012

Dan Primack was a senior editor at Fortune from 2010 to 2016. He was also the author of Term Sheet, Fortune's daily newsletter about deals and dealmakers.

FORTUNE -- Banks that helped Facebook (fb) go public are allowed to begin publishing research on the social network later today, which likely means a slew of "buy" reports about how the company is being undervalued.

But none of them are likely to be as optimistic as a report that came down the pipe today from Arcstone Equity Research, a firm that mostly focuses on still-private companies.

Analyst Bo Brustkern gives Facebook a target valuation of $156 billion, or approximately $66 per share. For context, the company priced its IPO at $38 per share and, since then, hasn't even been able to sniff $35 per share.

In his analysis, Brustkern lays out six different growth scenarios:



Source: Arcstone Equity Research

He then goes on to say that he prefers the third option, delayed takeoff with seasonality: "This is tricky for investors because the 'delayed' aspect of the model means Facebook will appear to underperform for many quarters while it builds potential energy; however, when the company goes kinetic we believe its cash flows will rocket upward."

Should be interesting to see how Brustkern's view matches up to those coming from analysts whose banks have actual skin in the Facebook game...

Sign up for Dan's daily email newsletter on deals and deal-makers: GetTermSheet.com

All products and services featured are based solely on editorial selection. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website.

Quotes delayed at least 15 minutes. Market data provided by Interactive Data. ETF and Mutual Fund data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Dow Jones Terms & Conditions: http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/html/tandc/indexestandcs.html. S&P Index data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Terms & Conditions. Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions