FORTUNE — Banks that helped Facebook FB go public are allowed to begin publishing research on the social network later today, which likely means a slew of “buy” reports about how the company is being undervalued.
But none of them are likely to be as optimistic as a report that came down the pipe today from Arcstone Equity Research, a firm that mostly focuses on still-private companies.
Analyst Bo Brustkern gives Facebook a target valuation of $156 billion, or approximately $66 per share. For context, the company priced its IPO at $38 per share and, since then, hasn’t even been able to sniff $35 per share.
In his analysis, Brustkern lays out six different growth scenarios:
He then goes on to say that he prefers the third option, delayed takeoff with seasonality: “This is tricky for investors because the ‘delayed’ aspect of the model means Facebook will appear to underperform for many quarters while it builds potential energy; however, when the company goes kinetic we believe its cash flows will rocket upward.”
Should be interesting to see how Brustkern’s view matches up to those coming from analysts whose banks have actual skin in the Facebook game…
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