Can the collapse of RIM, Nokia and LG be predicted down to the quarter?

By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
May 29, 2012

FORTUNE — Updating a chart he first posted last year (see here and here), Asymco’s Horace Dediu on Monday tried to estimate how long three badly wounded veterans of the smartphone wars — Research in Motion RIMM , Nokia NOK and LG — might survive.

He defines what he calls the “post-traumatic period” of a phone manufacturer’s life as beginning with their first loss-making quarter and ending with their exit from the business. How long that lasts, he suggests, depends on the company’s commitment to the industry. A diversified conglomerate like LG might cut its losses and be out in six months. RIM and Nokia, having no fall-back options, could linger for years.

For more on his hypothesis, click here.

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