FORTUNE — Updating a chart he first posted last year (see here and here), Asymco’s Horace Dediu on Monday tried to estimate how long three badly wounded veterans of the smartphone wars — Research in Motion (RIMM), Nokia (NOK) and LG — might survive.
He defines what he calls the “post-traumatic period” of a phone manufacturer’s life as beginning with their first loss-making quarter and ending with their exit from the business. How long that lasts, he suggests, depends on the company’s commitment to the industry. A diversified conglomerate like LG might cut its losses and be out in six months. RIM and Nokia, having no fall-back options, could linger for years.
For more on his hypothesis, click here.