FORTUNE — If I didn’t already agree with him, Mike Moskowitz’s note to clients Thursday would have convinced me.

“We do not expect Apple TV this year,” wrote J.P. Morgan’s chief Apple AAPL  watcher. “Our research does not indicate any looming TV-related product launch, and our model does not incorporate any potential impact from a TV device at this time. Despite the constant hum of media and investor speculation, we think any product entry will be measured in years, not quarters.

I’m not even sure about “years.” See Tell me again: Why do we think Apple will make a TV set?

“We believe,” Moskowitz continues, “that the economics of the TV industry are strained, despite there being suitable offerings from the likes of Sony, Sharp, and Samsung. Overall, we would be surprised to see Apple enter a new market unless the value proposition could support double-digit operating margins. In TVs, that bogey is rather elusive, in our view.”

As near as I can tell, Moskowitz is the first mainstream Apple analyst to take a firm stand against the imminent launch of what others are calling iTV.

Interestingly, he thinks Apple’s next big thing might be a mobile payment service he has dubbed iPay. “With this platform,” he writes, “we theorize that Apple users ultimately could pay for goods and services using NFC [near field communication] technology embedded in their iPhone or iPad and tied to an Apple account.”

That seems doable.