Its market cap today is $577 billion. Where do the next $400-plus billion come from?
In a note to clients issued early Tuesday, Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster raised his Q2 iPhone estimate (to 33 million), set a new 12-month price target ($910 per share) and — most provocatively — laid out a roadmap for Apple’s (AAPL) market capitalization to go from $576.79 billion as of Monday’s close to $1 trillion by 2014.
That would be a first. The previous record for the largest market cap (price per share times number of shares) ever reached by a public company was $619 billion, set by Microsoft (MSFT) in 1999.
So where does Apple get the next $400-plus billion?
The short answer: Half from more money pouring into tech stocks and half from money continuing to drain from the market cap of Apple’s major competitors, who have roughly $1 trillion between them.
As the chart above shows, in the past four years, Apple’s market cap increased by more than $390 billion while that of six core competitors — Research in Motion (RIMM), Nokia (NOK), Sony (SNE), Dell (DELL) Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Microsoft — decreased by more than $400 billion.
Turning to the next three years (2012-2014), Munster writes:
Ironically, Munster believes that the impact of Apple’s dividend — which for years was touted as the trigger for growth funds to finally start putting money into Apple — will be relatively small: