Estimates the iPad’s share will drop from 74% to 53.2% by the time Christmas is over



Estimates: Canaccord Genuity. Chart: PED

The chart above is what Canaccord Genuity’s T. Michael Walkley thinks the worldwide tablet market will look like this quarter after Amazon gets through disrupting it by selling a few million Kindle Fires at or below cost.

In a note to clients issued Tuesday, he estimated that …

Apple‘s AAPL share of units sold will drop from 74% in Q3 to 53.2% in Q4
Amazon‘s AMZN  will go from 0% to 15.3%
Samsung‘s will go from 10% to 11%
Asus‘ will go from 4.0% to 4.9%
HTC‘s will go from 2.7% to 2.9%
Research in Motion‘s RIMM will go from 1.3% to 0.6%

He expects all the rest have market shares below 1%.

A revenue chart for the quarter would look very different, with Apple soaking up nearly all the profit there is to be made selling tablet computers these days. See here for how Amazon will “vaporize” the market for everyone but Apple.

Below: To clear up some confusion in the comment stream — not to mention the confusion I caused Tuesday by posting the wrong spreadsheet, I’ve attached Walkley’s tablet numbers below. For his smartphone estimates, click here.



Click to enlarge.