Analysts: Apple set to report record Mac sales in Q3


Philip Elmer-DeWitt is a senior editor at Fortune.

Estimates range from 3.8 to 4.6 million. The consensus: 4.2 million, an all-time high

The Mac was hot seller last Christmas. But it was even hotter in the June quarter, according to most of the 43 analysts we polled in advance of our quarterly earnings smackdown.

Thirty of them are calling for Apple (aapl) to set an all-time record for computers sold when it releases its earnings for fiscal Q3 next Tuesday.

Even the lowest estimate -- 3.8 million from UBS's Maynard Um -- represents a 12% increase year over year in an industry that grew less than 3%, according to both IDC and Gartner.

The highest estimate, 4.63 million from Gabelli's Hendi Susanto, represents a 33% increase.

And the average estimate, 4.21 million, translates to yearly growth of more than 20%.

Below: The estimates we've gathered so far and the dates they were submitted. The Q2 rank numbers show how accurate each analyst's estimates were last quarter (the lower the better).

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Analysts, affiliationMacs (millions)Date of est.Q2 rank
Hendi Susanto, Gabelli & Co.4.637/8/1133
Navin Nagrani, Apple Finance Board4.506/26/11NA
Mark Beauch, Apple Finance Board4.485/9/1113
Nehal Chokshi, Technology Insights4.437/7/1114
Adam Thompson, Apple Finance Board4.437/3/1111
Robert Paul Leitao, Posts At Eventide4.416/25/116
Corey Forsberg, Apple Finance Board4.407/2/11NA
Horace Dediu, Asymco4.406/26/115
Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank4.407/5/1137
Patrick Smellie, Apple Finance Board4.367/2/1110
Brian White, Ticonderoga4.357/12/1139
Dennis Hildebrand, Apple's Gold4.346/24/1112
Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch4.316/7/1124
Shannon Cross, Cross Securities4.307/13/11NA
Daniel Ernst, Hudson Square4.307/11/1146
Scott Sutherland, Wedbush4.287/13/1143
Andy Zaky, Bullish Cross4.276/22/112
Charlie Wolf, Needham4.256/28/1136
Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital4.256/28/1141
Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital4.247/14/1118
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray4.247/14/1140
Daniel Tello, Deagol's AAPL Model4.227/1/114
Brian Marshall, Gleacher & Co.4.227/5/1126
Luke Kittell, Apple Finance Board4.206/24/118
Chas McKenna, Apple Finance Board4.206/17/119
Nicolae Mihalache, Traderhood4.186/24/1116
Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley4.176/26/1134
James Cordwell, Atlantic Equities4.177/6/11NA
Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna4.166/7/1121
Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan4.146/28/1120
Turley Muller, Financial Alchemist4.106/17/117
Richard Gardner, Citigroup4.107/13/1145
Peter Misek, Jeffries4.107/7/1127
Gurinder Kaira, Montrose Securities4.107/14/11NA
Robert Cihra, Caris4.107/11/1117
T. Michael Walkley, Canaccord Genuity4.007/5/1135
Bill Shope, Goldman Sachs3.967/6/1148
Keith Bachman, BMO Capital3.947/11/11NA
Mark Moskowitz, J.P. Morgan3.917/5/1123
Matthew Hoffman, Cowen & Co.3.904/21/1122
Shaw Wu, Sterne Agee3.907/6/1129
Ralph Schackart, William Blair3.896/7/1144
Maynard Um, UBS3.807/13/1128
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