IDC: Android global market share at 40% in 2011…

Mar 29, 2011

Double the nearest competitor.

Google's (goog) Android continues to see high smartphone market share projections from analysts.  Today's comes from IDC who has Android pegged at 39.5% for 2011 while its nearest competitor, the recently cancelled Symbian, drops to just 20.9%.  Apple's (aapl) iPhone and RIM's (rimm) BlackBerry both come in at around 15% with Microsoft's (msft) Windows Mobile/7 and others grabbing the remaining 9% of the market.

I'm willing to buy their 2011 numbers, but...<!-- more -->

I have no idea where IDC pulled their 2015 projection numbers from, however.  With the volatility of the smartphone market (the leader didn't exist 3 years ago), making predictions 4 years out in the future is a guessing game at best.  It isn't as easy as sliding Symbian's 20.9% market share over to Windows.

Observations:

  • BlackBerry is moving to QNX and won't exist in 2015, so you can delete that 13.7%.  The company is also at a turning point and could drop off the map or could continue to thrive.
  • Symbian won't exist at the end of next year, so change that to 0%
  • IDC, according to this projection, sees Android's quadruple digit yearly growth slowing to almost nothing over the next four years.
  • Apple's iOS drops market share while Windows quadruples?  Even with the Nokia (nok) alliance, that seems bull..ish.

In short, these numbers seem conservative, even if they were 2012 projections.  When asked what the landscape will look like in 2015, a smarter answer would be: "We haven't a clue", rather than just posting numbers that say the same thing.

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