Unit sales estimates for the quarter that ended Saturday range from 5 million to 7.54 million
The chatter on Investor Village’s AAPL Sanity board Christmas Day was mostly about who found iPads under the tree.
How big is a matter of considerable disagreement among analysts who track Apple AAPL . Having overshot Apple’s fourth quarter sales by as much as 2.3 million units, many are approaching the first fiscal quarter of 2011 with caution.
We polled 27 analysts — both professional and amateur — for their Q1 iPad unit sales estimates and got an unusually large range, from a low of 5 million units from Hudson Square’s Daniel Ernst to a high of 7.54 million from Goldman Sachs’ Bill Shope.
We’ve used the average of all the estimates — 6.35 million — in the chart above.
Below: The analysts, their estimates and the date they made them.
|Analyst, affiliation||iPads (millions)||Date of est.|
|Bill Shope, Goldman Sachs||7.54||12/12/10|
|Alexis Cabot, Apple Finance Board||7.46||12/23/10|
|Nicolae Mihalache, Traderhood||7.28||12/30/10|
|Dennis Hildebrand, Apple’s Gold||7.25||12/28/10|
|Richard Gardner, Citigroup||7.00||12/2/10|
|Doug Reid, Stifel Nicholaus||6.85||12/30/10|
|Turley Muller, Financial Alchemist||6.80||12/29/10|
|Robert Paul Leitao, Apple Finance Board||6.75||12/30/10|
|Mark Moskowitz, J.P. Morgan||6.71||12/16/10|
|Daniel Tello, Deagol’s AAPL Model||6.54||12/23/10|
|Jeff Fosberg, Apple Finance Board||6.50||12/29/10|
|Hendi Susanto, Gabelli & Co.||6.50||12/17/10|
|Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch||6.50||12/9/10|
|Rajesh Ghai, Think Equity||6.50||11/29/10|
|Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan||6.50||12/30/10|
|T. Michael Walkley, Canaccord Genuity||6.30||12/30/10|
|Shaw Wu, Kaufman Bros.||6.10||12/16/10|
|Horace Dediu, Asymco||6.00||10/21/10|
|Brian Marshall, Gleacher & Co.||6.00||12/29/10|
|Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank||6.00||12/28/10|
|Matthew Hoffman, Cowen & Co.||5.90||12/16/10|
|Maynard Um, UBS||5.50||12/28/10|
|Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley||5.50||12/29/10|
|William Power, Baird||5.50||11/4/10|
|Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray||5.50||11/29/10|
|Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna||5.40||11/29/10|
|Daniel Ernst, Hudson Square||5.00||12/29/10|
. . .
[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]