Unit sales estimates for the quarter that ended Saturday range from 5 million to 7.54 million
The chatter on Investor Village’s AAPL Sanity board Christmas Day was mostly about who found iPads under the tree.
“My kids bought me one. Completely unexpected,” wrote one investor under the heading It is going to be an AMAZING 1st qtr iPad number. “Bought my parents one. They are amazed by it. My brother-in-law bought my sister one (totally unexpected). My son’s GF got one (hoped for but not expected). Brace yourselves, folks. Gonna be big. Real big.”
How big is a matter of considerable disagreement among analysts who track Apple AAPL. Having overshot Apple’s fourth quarter sales by as much as 2.3 million units, many are approaching the first fiscal quarter of 2011 with caution.
We polled 27 analysts — both professional and amateur — for their Q1 iPad unit sales estimates and got an unusually large range, from a low of 5 million units from Hudson Square’s Daniel Ernst to a high of 7.54 million from Goldman Sachs’ Bill Shope.
We’ve used the average of all the estimates — 6.35 million — in the chart above.
Below: The analysts, their estimates and the date they made them.
Date of est.
Bill Shope, Goldman Sachs
Alexis Cabot, Apple Finance Board
Nicolae Mihalache, Traderhood
Dennis Hildebrand, Apple’s Gold
Richard Gardner, Citigroup
Doug Reid, Stifel Nicholaus
Turley Muller, Financial Alchemist
Robert Paul Leitao, Apple Finance Board
Mark Moskowitz, J.P. Morgan
Daniel Tello, Deagol’s AAPL Model
Jeff Fosberg, Apple Finance Board
Hendi Susanto, Gabelli & Co.
Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch
Rajesh Ghai, Think Equity
Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan
T. Michael Walkley, Canaccord Genuity
Shaw Wu, Kaufman Bros.
Horace Dediu, Asymco
Brian Marshall, Gleacher & Co.
Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank
Matthew Hoffman, Cowen & Co.
Maynard Um, UBS
Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley
William Power, Baird
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray
Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna
Daniel Ernst, Hudson Square
. . .
[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]