Also mobile broadband will surpass wireline speeds in the next three years or so.
If you think Gartner and IDC are bullish on Android, talk to Adobe ADBE CTO Kevin Lynch for a few minutes. In an interview on Monday, Lynch told Fortune that he believes that Android’s growth will continue to blow past the industry and will make up 50% of the smartphone market within the next six months.
We are already seeing Apple’s AAPL iOS and Blackberry RIMM losing market share to Android simply because they aren’t growing fast enough to keep up. Lynch’s Adobe team works deeply with the Android developers at Google GOOG so he’s probably privy to information and forecasts that the public hasn’t yet seen. His forecast gives Android two more quarters to go from 3% of the market in Q3 ’09 to 26% now to 50% in Q2 11.
That’s insane. He expects Android to go from nothing to a majority of the market in the period of a typical U.S. mobile phone contract.
Lynch on mobile broadband speeds compared to cable:
That, of course, depends on wireline providers standing completely still…which they have for the better part of a decade. Google is trying to push 1 Gbps fiber to homes and Verizon is experimenting with the same, but will those technologies reach the masses before the wireless carriers start to deploy? And when does it become cheaper to build new wireless technology that connects thousands of people rather than run fiber to every home?
Lynch on why the smartphone revolution is happening right now:
On Skyfire, the browser that lets iOS devices watch some Flash Video by transcoding it into a form which iOS can play, becoming the number one download on Apple’s App Store:
I asked how long it would take for Adobe to ramp up Flash for the web if Apple changed its stance on Flash. He wouldn’t give a time frame and based the timetable on how well Apple and Adobe would work together. That seems like a pretty far off consideration at this point.
Adobe doesn’t benefit from a dominant PC player such as Microsoft gaining a majority of the market in smartphones. If Android becomes 90% of the smartphone market, developers don’t have to use Flash or Air to build applications, they can just use Android’s tools. That is why it is interesting to hear Lynch talk about Android becoming a majority player.