Many will try, few will survive, says an Asian manufacturer working on several of them
Two new tablet computers based on Google’s GOOG Android operating system — one from Samsung, the other by Toshiba — were introduced at a trade show in Berlin this week, part of a wave of knockoff designs inspired by Apple’s AAPL iPad.
Many of them will disappear within a year, Compal Electronics president Ray Chen told investors on Wednesday, as the new arrivals quickly discover that competing with the iPad is not as easy as it looks.
Chen should know. The giant Taiwanese original equipment manufacturer is building tablets for three of the biggest players in the market: Acer, Lenovo and Dell DELL .
The new tablets’ specs are likely look better on paper, Alexander noted. And indeed, both Samsung Galaxy Tab and Toshiba’s Folio 100 have built-in cameras and can run Adobe ADBE Flash, two things conspicuously missing from Apple’s iPad. But, she added:
The proliferation of devices, each with different specs, actually works in Apple’s favor.
According to Alexander, Apple will have captured by the end of 2010, more than 74% of the tablet sales. And she predicts that despite growing competition, it will dominate the market for at least the next two years, with 70.4% and 61.7% of tablet sales in 2011 and 2012, respectively. (See chart.)
Chen’s numbers aren’t that different. He predicts that between them, all the iPad knockoffs combined will sell no more than 10-12 million units worldwide next year. According to Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty, Apple is currently building 2 million iPads per month and has told its suppliers to ramp that up to 3 million per month, which implies a 2011 run-rate of 36 million.
[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]