By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
September 1, 2010

Better to put your money on a new iPhone 4, according to

Given that these guys runs an online craps table and are better known for giving odds on NFL games than high-tech product releases, take this with a grain of salt.

But according to, Apple (AAPL) is much more likely to release a new version of the iPhone 4 on Wednesday than it is to announce a new iPod touch.

Here are the openings odds they were giving on Tuesday afternoon:

  • The release of a revised version of the iPhone 4         +100     50%
  • A new iPod Nano with a 3cm by 3cm touch screen       +150     40%
  • Apple TV priced at $99                                                 +200     33%
  • A new iPod touch                                                          +250     28%

The + number indicates the return on a $100 bet if you guess correctly. For example, if you put $100 down on a new iPhone 4 and Steve Jobs delivers, you’ll walk away with $200. The same money placed on a new iPod touch could win you $350 — your original $100 bet plus $250 in winnings.

Those numbers run counter to conventional wisdom among analysts and other Apple watchers. If I were a gambling man, I’d bet against the iPhone 4 and take those odds on the iPod touch.

UPDATE: Readers report that the odds have shifted considerably since they were originally posted.

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[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]

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