In a research paper by Dr. James L. McQuivey, Forrester lays out some interesting claims for Google’s TV platform.
GoogleTV wowed the audience at Google I/O this year bringing together some of the consumer industry’s heavyweights behind a platform that seemed to offer a new spin on the TV.
In the report, he offers some good reasons why GoogleTV will be different.
- GoogleTV can be offered in any TV device. Besides what’s already been announced, GoogleTV can be put in additional TV and BluRay boxes. They expect to see GoogleTV inside of Sony (SNE) Playstations and Nintendo Wiis within a year.
- GoogleTV will turn mobile phones into remotes as demonstrated at Google I/O. That will add a new dimension to the industry allowing a whole new level of interaction with TVs
- For better or worse, Google (GOOG) is aware of what you are watching and what your history of TV watching is. They can make educated guesses about what you may like in the future. You can already see this in YouTube suggestions. GoogleTV will bring that type of knowledge across content platforms.
They see GoogleTV’s adoption as a three-part process.
First, hardware manufacturers must get on board. Forrester expects additional makers to get on board at the time of launch. GoogleTV‘s software will be free and Intel’s hardware should be relatively inexpensive.
Since it will be on a lot of hardware, a lot of viewers will be on board. Forrester thinks the initial market for a device like that is around 10 million viewers but they estimate that even at one million, it will spur developer interest.
Developers will get on board and start creating some additional value for perspective viewers.
That will create a full virtuous cycle.
Who stands to lose?
Forrester expects TV, BluRay and set top box manufacturers that are on the outside looking in to scramble to keep up or lose any premium value. CableTV providers and networks will have to shift their models to accomodate the ease at which content flows to TVs. And of course, Apple who have been working on their “hobby” may bee missing an opportunity.
Any chance at failure?
While Forrester is confident that GoogleTV will be a success, they point out that Google needs to understand that TV is still TV. Most people don’t want the traditional Web on their TV. They want TV with the added benefit of Internet content. Forrester concludes:
That experience is one that Google has not yet proven it can deliver. However, with efforts like YouTube “lean back” and other innovations, Google is certainly moving in that direction.
Much more in the full report available from Forrester.