The consensus on Wall Street was that Apple would sell fewer than 382,000 iPads a month
In the wake of Apple’s AAPL announcement Monday that it has sold 2 million iPads in less than two months, this seems a good time to revisit the sales predictions made by the experts when the iPad first came out.
As it happens, we published the estimates of 14 Apple analysts on Jan. 28, the day after Steve Jobs unveiled the device. All of them expected Apple’s sales to grow over time, but none anticipated that they would be anywhere near this high.
You can see the original estimates here. Because they were framed over different time periods — fiscal years, calendar years, 12 months from the start of sales — we’ve boiled them down to units per month and posted the revised spreadsheet below the fold.
As you will see, the estimates range from a high of 777,778 iPads per month, put forward by Broadpoint Amtech’s Brian Marshall, to a low of 175,000 from Thomas Weisel’s Doug Reid. The average was 381,865.
If sales slow down, Marshall’s estimate could turn out to be close to the mark.
Reid — like most of his compatriots — isn’t even in the ball park.
Below: The Jan. 28 estimates for this year and next expressed as iPad sales per month.
|Units per month||Units per month|
|Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech||777,778||1,083,333|
|David Bailey, Goldman Sachs||688,889||841,667|
|Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley||666,667||750,000|
|Ben Reitzes, Barclay’s Capital||483,333||608,333|
|Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros.||416,667||833,333|
|Keith Bachman, BMO Capital||416,667||458,333|
|Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray||388,889||666,667|
|Bill Shope, Credit Suisse||293,333||616,667|
|Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna||233,333||316,667|
|Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank||222,222||333,333|
|Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch||200,000||308,333|
|Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams||200,000||291,667|
|Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer||183,333||333,333|
|Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel||175,000||566,667|
. . .