By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
May 31, 2010

The consensus on Wall Street was that Apple would sell fewer than 382,000 iPads a month

In the wake of Apple’s (AAPL) announcement Monday that it has sold 2 million iPads in less than two months, this seems a good time to revisit the sales predictions made by the experts when the iPad first came out.

As it happens, we published the estimates of 14 Apple analysts on Jan. 28, the day after Steve Jobs unveiled the device. All of them expected Apple’s sales to grow over time, but none anticipated that they would be anywhere near this high.

You can see the original estimates here. Because they were framed over different time periods — fiscal years, calendar years, 12 months from the start of sales — we’ve boiled them down to units per month and posted the revised spreadsheet below the fold.

As you will see, the estimates range from a high of 777,778 iPads per month, put forward by Broadpoint Amtech’s Brian Marshall, to a low of 175,000 from Thomas Weisel’s Doug Reid. The average was 381,865.

If sales slow down, Marshall’s estimate could turn out to be close to the mark.

Reid — like most of his compatriots — isn’t even in the ball park.

Below: The Jan. 28 estimates for this year and next expressed as iPad sales per month.

Units per month Units per month
2010 2011
Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech 777,778 1,083,333
David Bailey, Goldman Sachs 688,889 841,667
Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley 666,667 750,000
Ben Reitzes, Barclay’s Capital 483,333 608,333
Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros. 416,667 833,333
Keith Bachman, BMO Capital 416,667 458,333
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray 388,889 666,667
Bill Shope, Credit Suisse 293,333 616,667
Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna 233,333 316,667
Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank 222,222 333,333
Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch 200,000 308,333
Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams 200,000 291,667
Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer 183,333 333,333
Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel 175,000 566,667

. . .
See also:

You May Like