The second in a series of previews of Apple’s results for the first fiscal quarter of 2010
On Monday we sampled the Street’s expectations for Apple’s AAPL iPhone sales in the fiscal quarter that ended on Dec. 26. (See here).
Today we look at analysts’ Q1 2010 estimates for the product that contributes more to the company’s bottom line than any other: the Mac.
As with the iPhone, there is a huge range in the unit sales numbers we’ve collected, from a high of 3.31 million from Broadpoint AmTech’s Brian Marshall to a low of 2.79 million from Technology Insights’ Nehal Chokshi. (See below the fold.)
Date of est.
Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech
Mark Moskowitz, J.P. Morgan
Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer Equity Res.
Ben Reitzes, Barclay’s Capital
Deagol, Apple Finance Board
Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel
Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams
Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan
Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley
Turley Muller, Financial Alchemist
Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank
Shaw Wu, Kauffman Brothers
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray
Nehal Chokshi, Technology Insights
Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna Financial
(Unit sales in millions.)
. . . . . .
Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster has one of the lowest estimates (2.856 million), but he remains bullish on the stock. As he pointed out in a report to clients Tuesday, comparisons to the previous year’s monthly sales become a lot easier in the first half of 2010.
In the second half of 2009, Mac sales were compared with the second half of 2008, when they grew an average of 18% year over year according to data from the NPD Group. In the first half of 2010 they will be compared with the first half of 2009, when they fell an average of 1%. See Munster’s chart below:
“We see these easing comps,” writes Munster, “as a buying opportunity ahead of NPD data for the final month of the Dec. quarter on 1/18.”