That's her "bull" case. In her "bear" scenario, Apple falls to $150 per share in 2010.
Katy Huberty's three scenarios for Apple (aapl) -- bear, base and bull -- is the lead item in Morgan Stanley's "Key Surprises for 2010," a 15-company forecast issued to clients Wednesday.
Huberty is leaning heavily toward the bull, offering three paths by which Apple hits somewhere between $325 and $435 per share within the next 12 months:
- Apple broadens distribution for global market coverage, reaching 10% global handset market share — roughly one-third of the smartphone market — by the September 2012 fiscal year.
- In addition to greater high-end smartphone penetration, Apple introduces products with more affordable hardware/service plans, increasing its handset market share further to 15% (roughly 50% of the smartphone market) in F2012.
- Apple drives for handset market leadership by forgoing carrier subsidies and shifting the iPhone profit pool to content, services, accessories.
The Street, she believes, is only giving Apple a 5% chance of surpassing that $325-plus target. She puts the odds at one in four.
Her other two scenarios are not so rosy:
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- Base Case Scenario: $230/share. iPhone success limited to high-end (F2012 market share 4%).
- Bear Case Scenario: $150/share. iPhone loses its luster, open ecosystems win (F2012 market share 2-3%).
Apple closed Wednesday at $195.03, up 0.86 points (0.44%) for the day.
[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]